Latest Steadman Poll (KENYA 2007)

Steadman Polls are out; and Hon. Odinga has suddenly dropped five points in two weeks: 3 points to Hon Kalonzo and 2 points to Mzee Kibaki. That is the bad news to ODM supporters. The good news to ODM is that Steadman has corrected their ratings for the actual number of registered voters per district (read province ). In a sense, there is no change in the ratings. Steadman changed its sampling method and pegged it to the number of registered voters per district. Steadman's latest method could have had more Eastern and Central Province electors in the stataistical pool than the rest of the nation. This could have been enough to give Kalonzo and Kibaki a boost. Thsi poll also teaches that a candidate could win the Presidency by winning only in his home Province and losing in the rest of the Nation (as long as he garners 25% in four other Provinces). Isn't that sad for democracy?

Re-read this e-mail and mark the following word: TURNOUT. Yes, TURNOUT will decide the presidential race. It also means that in some areas where PNU dorminates even dead men shall vote. No wonder GEMA areas have been declared no-go zones for ODM. In this scenerio, the recent transfers of returning officers and a largely freshman NEC do not augur well for ODM.

A party hoping to win the presidency must have a candidate and a presence in every ward, because significant human and digital (sound, vision, data, dated) presence in every polling station may be the only countermeasures to dead men voting.

Watch for Hon. Kalozo's next move. Why would a candidate meet with a pollstar?
 
Joseph R. Alila