THE STEADMAN GROUP OPINION POLL IS KIBAKI'S CAMPAIGN TOOL

 By MIGUNA MIGUNA* - © 22 December 2006
 
 The Steadman Group has done it again. The last time  Steadman tried  this trick on Kenyans was in December 2005. Apparently, by  statistically crunching 2,018 numbers out of an  estimated voting population of more than 15 million strong, Steadman  has managed to  condense and compartmentalize Kenyans into voting machines ready to  re-elect President Kibaki if elections were held today. Not  surprisingly, Steadman's latest opinion poll rates President Kibaki  much higher than his rivals.
 
 Steadman has claimed that Kibaki has a national support of 42 per  cent
compared to Kalonzo Musyoka's 20 percent, Raila Odinga's 14 per  cent, Uhuru Kenyatta's 5 per cent and William Rutto's 3 percent.  Musyoka, Raila, Uhuru and Rutto are all leaders of the Orange  Democratic Movement - Kenya (ODM-K).  According to this latest poll, all ODM-K's leading presidential candidates' national following  amounts to 42 percent only.
 
 Essentially, Steadman tells us that if elections were to be held  today, a
united ODM-K would not dethrone Kibaki. Ironically, Steadman  claims that this theory hold true despite ODM-K's reported 33 per  cent countrywide support compared to Narc Kenya's 19 per cent  following. Implied in this reasoning is the misguided belief that  Kenyans vote based on personalities and not party affiliations. Not  properly factored in are regional and ethnic considerations and how  these have historically influenced voting.
 
 As far as Steadman is concerned, Kenyans are so pleased by Kibaki's  role in
the introduction of free primary education, the revival of  the economy, the
fight against corruption, improved security,  appointments based on merit,
attempts to enact a new constitution and  the creation of jobs for ordinary
Kenyans that they would want him to stay five more years at State House.
 
 This means that Kenyans have either forgotten or forgiven Kibaki for  refusing
to enact for them a new constitution, for forcing them to  participate in a
national charade called a referendum last November  and for failing to deal with
spiraling grand corruption. It also means that the overwhelming majority of
Kenyans care less about the  refusal by the Kibaki administration to deal with
the scandalous  Artur & Artur debacle, the Government's role in the barbaric
attack  on the Standard Group and the recent killings of civilians by anti- riot
police in Kibera, Mathare, Kerusoi, Kisumu, Pokot, Molo, Mombassa and other places.
 
 If Steadman's latest poll accurately captures the mood and true  feelings of
the Kenyan people, it means that as a nation, we either  do not care or have
forgiven Kibaki for betraying each and every  single pre-election promise he
made in 2002. It entails that we have  forgotten why we refused to elect Kanu
and Uhuru Kenyatta.   That's what Steadman would like Kenyans to believe.
 Not so fast.
 
 It is questionable how Kenyans would rate Kibaki's role in the  provision of
free primary education at 94 per cent as if he was  solely responsible for this
feat. Was Kibaki able to perform this  miracle without the involvement of
Parliament and other leaders? And  if Kibaki is given credit for this, how can
the same voters deny  credit to Raila, Musyoka, Uhuru and Rutto when the latter four  supported the introduction of the same in Parliament?
 
 How about the so-called revived economy? Is it really as buoyed as  proclaimed by Government apologists? Assuming that it is, why and how  can anyone claim that Kibaki is solely responsible for the alleged  growth? Are Kenyans that naïve and gullible?
 
 The claim that 50 per cent of Kenyans believe that Kibaki has  fulfilled his
pledge to improve security is laughable. Anyone knows  that Nairobi and other
urban centres in the country have increasingly  become mean, violent and
dangerous. Armed and violent robberies have  gone up, not down, in recent years.  Violence against women and youth has increased, not reduced. Violent
confrontations between police and  civilians have become more lethal, not less.
Most plum government,  diplomatic and parastatal jobs have gone to cronies,
relatives,  friends and ethnic kinspeople of Kibaki's trusted lieutenants who
all  happen to hail from the Mount Kenya region. These jobs are not held by the most deserving Kenyans. We know that much.
 
 Budgetary allocations for the infrastructure developments the  Government have initiated have gone mainly to Central Province and a  few areas where senior members of the Government come from. It is  doubtful that Kenyans, in all their pathetic amnesia, have forgotten  the faces of the dying, hungry and starving country men and women in  Eastern and North Eastern provinces that stared at them early this  year.
 
 With the perpetrators of the Goldenberg and Anglo Fleecing economic  crimes
still strutting freely in our streets, Kenyans cannot be said  to have forgotten
Kibaki's refusal to act on grand corruption. To  suggest this would be to insult
our collective intelligence.
 
 The suggestion that Kibaki leads in all provinces except Nyanza  cannot be
scientific or credible. Even more unbelievable is the myth  being peddled that
Raila's rating in Nyanza province stands at 43 per  cent. How is that possible?
Even if we were to generously accept that  Nyachae's influence among the
Abagusii community is still strong, the Abagusii do not comprise 60 per cent of
Nyanza's population. Is  Steadman suggesting that less than 50 per cent of Luos would support  a Raila candidature?
 
 How was it possible to rate ODM-K's popularity at 33 per cent while  at the
same time claim that one of the main parties within ODM-K, the  Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) only has 3 per cent of national  support? If ODM-K is mainly LDP and Kanu, how is it possible to  attribute 33 percent for ODM-K while the combined strength of both LDP (3%) and Kanu (5%) is only given as 8 per cent? Considering the  recent turmoil Kanu and the Uhuru Kenyatta faction of Kanu has been going through, where does Steadman attribute ODM-K's 33% support to  be coming from?
 
 How was it possible to give Kibaki 42% when Narc, which is the party  he heads, is reported to have only 17% national  support?