ODM may pick Uhuru or Kalonzo

Story by BERNARD NAMUNANE
Publication Date: 4/9/2007

ODM Kenya may opt for either Kalonzo Musyoka or Uhuru Kenyatta to face President Kibaki in the December General Election. The revelations came as controversy stocked the recent move by MPs allied to the party to form a council of elders, which would produce a formula to pick the ODM-K presidential candidate.

Labour Party of Kenya (LPK) dismissed the council headed by Westlands MP Fred Gumo, arguing it was made up of leaders with vested interests. “The Labour Party of Kenya does not recognise the recently established council of elders chaired by Hon Fred Gumo. The group’s capacity to mediate and build consensus is severely undermined by its composition which is drawn from persons with vested interests and directly biased towards certain presidential candidates,” said LPK’s secretary-general Peter Kubebea.

The party, whose chair is nominated MP Julia Ojiambo, went on the offensive as investigations revealed ODM-K, in its determination to win the elections, had hired experts in statistics to work out a formula to help its members nominate a presidential candidate who could easily win the polls. The team based at ODM-K headquarters in Nairobi, is juggling on 4.5 million, which it sees as the least number of votes the party’s presidential candidate should garner to guarantee victory.

MPs Billow Kerrow, Andrew Ligale and Joe Khamisi who were interviewed yesterday were categorical that the flagbearer must beat President Kibaki with a landslide. “It is not just a question of having a presidential candidate. We need a candidate who can beat Kibaki hands down. We are developing criteria, which we will use to nominate one,” said Mr Kerrow, the Mandera Central MP. The experts are using the November 21, 2005, referendum results to explore the likely pattern of voting in the December elections.

Insiders in the party stated that a study of regional patterns of voting in the referendum indicated that either Mr Musyoka (Mwingi North) or Mr Kenyatta (Gatundu South) were best suited to enable ODM-K secure victory. MPs Raila Odinga, William Ruto, Ojiambo, Najib Balala, Joseph Nyagah, former Vice-President Musalia Mudavadi and Ms Nazlin Umar are in the race for the party’s presidential ticket.

The reason, it is stated, was that the two aspirants come from regions which either did not cast their votes for the Orange during the referendum or outrightly chose to align with the Banana team.

Eastern Province, the backyard of Mr Musyoka, voted 50 per cent either way during the referendum. Of the 1,977,480 voters, 494,624 voted against the Wako Draft while 485,282 endorsed the proposed constitution.

Central Province, the home ground of Mr Kenyatta, overwhelmingly endorsed the Wako Draft with 1,023,219 votes (87 per cent) out of the 1,795,27 registered voters choosing the Banana. A meagre 74,394 (7 per cent) voted for the Orange. The statisticians, reports state, were coming out categorically that ODM-K needs 1.5 million swing votes to form the next government.

The experts are of the view that this should be where the catch in the party’s search for a presidential candidate lies. They argue that Mr Odinga, Mr Ruto and Mr Mudavadi whose backyards are three major regions, are sure of raising the 3.5 million votes.

However, insiders said they believe none of these three aspirants can attract the much needed 1.5 million votes from Central and Eastern provinces. This is why, although they hold high stakes in the race, a view was gaining ground that they should pave way for either Mr Musyoka or Kenyatta to deliver the vote.

As if in agreement, Mr Khamisi said the party could even stretch beyond the present aspirants should it emerge that they cannot beat President Kibaki. LPK faulted the new dimension of the council of elders as the team to lead its search for a presidential candidate. Speaking after the party’s national executive committee meeting at Panafric hotel, Mr Kubebea said the council should draw its membership from eminent persons representing professionals, civil society, religious leaders and former MPs.

Contacted, Mr Ligale, a member of the council, said they were crafting criteria for nominating a candidate, and allayed fears of the process being manipulated by one of the hopefuls.

The council was formed by MPs who were concerned that differences between Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka were threatening to split the party and should be stopped.

They have been holding meeting at United Kenya Club with a view to crafting a formula to nominate a candidate through consensus. They have also formed a sub-committee to work on a power-sharing formula in the party among the four aspirants who will remain in the race after others have been persuaded to step aside.