sent by Kuria-Mwangi

Steadman Polls:Kibaki surpasses the 50% mark as Raila trounces Kalonzo

Written By:Francis Gachuri ,
Posted: Sat, Mar 31, 2007

Caption: President Kibaki leads by 51 percent according to latest polls If elections were held today, President Kibaki would win with a wide margin after the latest opinion poll survey shows his standings at a commanding 51 per cent.

According to the quarterly survey by the Steadman Group released Saturday March 31, 2007, Kibaki has opened his lead against his closest rival Raila Odinga whose ratings stand at 17%, who has now overtaken Kalonzo Musyoka with 14%. Uhuru Kenyatta's popularity continues to wane coming a distant third with a mere 2%.

The government also posted impressive results in service delivery and performance with 79% of the 2027 respondents giving it thumbs up. When the last survey results were released in December last year, Kibaki emerged top with 41%. But Saturday's results have shown his popularity rapidly rising thus widening the gap between him and the closest rival. Not even a combined force of all the 9 aspirants contesting to be the ODM-K presidential flag bearer can match him in popularity test. His popularity is especially strong in the rural areas where he scored 53% compared to 47% in the urban areas.

For the first time in the survey's history, Raila trounced Kalonzo raising stakes in the fight for the ODM-K presidential ticket. But in case of a two-horse race between president Kibaki and Odinga, the survey shows Kibaki would floor him with a massive 62%. Kibaki would edge out Kalonzo by 54% compared to the latter's 43% in case of two-horse race. Overall, Kalonzo Musyoka is the man the president's team would have to watch out for in a run-off.

The latest survey however is bad news for the embattled KANU chairman Uhuru Kenyatta whose popularity is fast plummeting. ODM-K is leading in party popular party with 36% while Narc-K is second with 24%. President Kibaki's government scored highly in the performance index with Education, health prison reform, econmic development and agriculture getting massive approval from the respondents. Graft, insecurity and constitutional review remain the black spots the government must address, says the report.

A whooping 79% of the 2027 respondents gave Kibaki's performance thumbs up. He managed to get over 60% approval in all provinces, and did impressively well in Nyanza, often perceived to be Raila's sphere of influence where he scored 55%. Even with the leadership wrangles facing the flower party, 60% of the respondents believe that Kibaki will seek a second term on a Narc-K ticket while Narc and DP come follow with 28% and 1% respectively. 46% of the respondents believe that there would be no other person among the current aspirants who would make a better president than Kibaki.