Re: [KOL] Re: ANOTHER POLL---[LATEST] New poll supports Kibaki's style

Kuria-Mwangi wrote:

Nd. Matunda,

You actually got these words from my mouth. I was wondering what those who vilified Steadman would say about this one which seems to agree with the former. Sometimes back, the International Republican Inst. released a poll which favored Kalonzo. Those who do not like his face went ahead to claim that US Republican Party, more so the Evangelicals were behind the poll. Their thinking being that IRI is a Bush outfit and that Kalonzo being a "saved" person was being pushed by Team Bush to lead Kenya. This rumor, i guess died a natural death once Kalonzo was pushed to the periphery in subsequent opinion polls. But you will hear of IRI being funded by Kibaki or Bush fronting for Mwai Kibaki. They dont lack some wild rumors!

My advise to those who rush to dismiss the opinion polls would be to take them seriously and devise strategies to stop Kibaki's surge. Failure to do so would lead to major disappointments come 2008. But you bet that they will talk of massive riggings and then start campaigns for 1212 elections. I just wish they had strategists and people to guide them towards the elections.

You hit the nail on the spot. Corruption and nepotism are major issues which can be employed effectively to shut out Kibaki from power come next year. Unfortunately, the people who influence the voting patterns are rarely swayed by corruption and nepotism rhetoric if they realize that those vilified are putting sufurias of ugali on their tables. The middle class may get swayed easily on such rhetoric but they have little impact on voting outcome. It is issues such as ethnicity and economic issues which seem to sway the masses in Kenya otherwise those with question marks on their faces (Biwott, Saitoti, Ruto, Mudavadi, kiraitu) would not even see the inside of parliament leave alone think of leading the country.

The CDP and feelings of improving economy will be major factors in this years elections. It will be very difficult to dissociate Mwai Kibaki's leadership from the excellent use of CDP funds while those places where they have failed, the MPs will get the blame while the Govt goes unscathed (the fact being that the Govt gave out money but local leaders failed the people). Thus even in failed constituencies, Kibaki will still gain mileage.

We should also not forget that in Kenya, people do not vote parties but personalities. Thus Kibaki's good showing even when it seems like he is partyless should worry his opponents. What this means is that he can stand on Sisi kwa Sisi (Andu aitu party?) and still win. People will vote for parties which carry individuals they like, trust, love or want deliver them to the dining table).

Kuria