Re: New Poll Supports Kibaki's Style

Matunda wrote:

"The poll is consistent with the recent Steadman poll; the "Doubting Thomases" should stop attacking Steadman and focus on the issues the polls find."

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Actually, Bwana Matunda, contrary to settling questions, these polls in fact make claims that appear more and more bizarre. Just a few weeks ago, we were told, for example, that Kibaki’s popularity stood at 51%; today we are being told by another poll that it has climbed to 65%.

Can you explain to us what has happened between then and now? What exactly has happened between the time Kibaki’s popularity stood at 51% and today? What exactly is the reason behind such a wide margin?

I am not an expert on polls, but the little I know suggests that such wide disparities in polling results are not normal. When a poll result differs markedly from another by as much as 14%, you cannot just assume that nothing strange is going on. There has to be an attempt to explain things. Your popularity cannot rise from 51% to 65% within such a short time without an explanation.

Such dramatic fluctuations, in my opinion, actually beg for more answers than outbreaks of orgiastic celebrations. When George Bush’s popularity rating in the US soared to more than 80% immediately after the September 11, it was very clear why. The attacks brought the Americans together and they rallied around the president and the presidency.

The same cannot be said of Kenya. Nothing has happened or changed in Kenya to explain the perplexing phenomenon of the president’s popularity that keeps soaring and soaring without something happening in between. The level of poverty is still the same. Tribalism is just as bad. Unemployment is still high. Insecurity is pervasive.

Scandals after scandals continue unabated. Since the last poll taking by the Steadman Group, when Kibaki’s popularity rating was allegedly 51%, the Artur Brothers are back in the news. The Ansellia Holdings’ Lottery Scheme is on the verge of collapsing and disappearing with more than 600 million shillings of investors’ money [Daily Nation, Saturday, April 14, 2007]. The so-called Vision 2030 has turned out to be fraudulent rallying-point aimed at conning people into voting for Kibaki.

Land clashes have broken out in the Mt. Elgon area, displacing people, disrupting business, and leading to loss of lives. Kibaki has neither visited the Mt. Elgon area nor commiserated with the victims of the clashes. He has not come out on television or radio to address the nation.

The outcome of the East African Court, involving Kenya’s representatives at the East African Parliament, has left the Kibaki government with rotten eggs splattered all over its face. There is a lot of uncertainty at NARC-K just as much as at ODM-K. Nobody knows which Kibaki belongs to.

Yet, amidst all these scandals, all these crises, all these questions, Kibaki’s popularity just keeps soaring. The more people get killed around Mt. Elgon region the more they are determined to vote Kibaki back to power.

Where most scandals would destroy a presidency, scandals of the Kenyan kind involving the Artur Brothers, the Mt. Elgon land clashes, only keep Kibaki presidency afloat, his popularity rising and rising, soaring and soaring into the stratosphere. Amazing, isn’t it? The more scandals break out, the more Kibaki becomes popular and his presidency thrives!

It gets even more bizarre when it is claimed that Kenyans, according to this latest poll, will not vote along ethnic lines during the coming General Election; only on issues. This has never happened and is going to be something new; a first in Kenya’s history; something that has to be seen to be believed.

At a time when we have the most tribalistic president ever in Kenya’s history, we are being told that Kenyans have resolved to forget all the nauseating tribalism of Kibaki’s presidency, all the tribal discrimination, all the tribal-based appointments and disappointments, all the tribal-based allocation and misallocation of the national cake, and vote only on issues during the elections.

So, just as every scandal and every crisis nourishes Kibaki’ presidency, so does a tribalism; it only makes Kibaki re-electable. The more Kibaki practices tribalism, the more he makes people giddy with joyous thoughts. They like his style – 65% of them no less, up from 51% just a few weeks ago; all determined to elect him! Amazing.

Meshack Owino.