By Mumia G Osaaji

Langa’ta MP Mr Raila Odinga’s chances of clinching the presidency appear under siege, and ironically because the major threat is not President Kibaki, but his peers in ODM- Kenya.

It is now emerging that ODM presidential aspirants have unconsciously ganged up against Raila. This is not only baffling, but also worrying many ODM-Kenya supporters. The irony in ODM-Kenya is a two-layer discourse in which the unpleasant undercurrents undermine the faÁade of purposeful unity.

On the surface, we have heard pledges ad nauseum that all aspirants will stand by and offer undiluted support to the one who wins the presidential nomination fairly. In this formal discourse, only the incumbent, Kibaki, stands between the ODM- Kenya candidate and State House. And ODM-Kenya appears to gain fillip from the results of the 2005 referendum on the constitution, in which Kibaki was trounced.

Indeed, the referendum has spawned a towering conviction that a united ODM will make mince meat of whichever outfit Kibaki rides on at General Elections. And this is the real glue that still knits and splices the disparate strands in the party.

But the cosy outlook comes up against a discordant political discourse that consists sizzling egos, burning jealousies, personality differences and ethnic suspicions among the ODM-Kenya leaders.

It is not idle to figure out the unravelling of the jet-set party if the teething problems are not dexterously fissured through an agreeable vent.

The ripening events point to the coalescing of the manifold problems into a singular suspicion of one of its presidential candidates, Raila.

Reasons for the fearful development are embedded in Raila’s personality, his actions and the behaviour of his diehard followers. The preceding facets of politician Raila seem to naturally attract jealousy, mistrust and suspicion from ODM-Kenya colleagues.

As a person, Raila is arguably the most electrifying politician on the Kenyan landscape.

The recent glitzy launch of his political blueprint was not only tumultuous, but something akin to the volcanic. None of his compatriots have put up such an earth-shaking dazzle! And they may not.

Raila is equally a consummate and colourful politician, a case study in the art of excitement, surprise and spectacle.

He effortlessly outshines other candidates on the political platform. He is also well endowed with monetary resources, which may become handy in mounting campaigns. We have also witnessed his shrewd abilities as an astute organiser, mobiliser and team player.

However, some flaws habitually pop up in the political titan. Raila is reputedly impatient and has a hint of arrogance. And matters are not helped by the fact that he is one of the few politicians with a sizeable fanatical following known for loud arrogance, exclusivity, noisy theatrics and unwavering readiness to die with and for him.

Nevertheless, Raila also packs a considerable weight of scrupulous honesty and unsheathed forthrightness that saw him spend much of the 1980s in detention.

A politician thus endowed alienates competitors. It is, therefore, easy to understand the frustrations of his colleagues, whose passion for the presidency only contrasts with Raila’s.

The emerging picture is that of a well-facilitated energetic competitor pitted against a lacklustre field of half-committed opponents. Partly because of this, Raila has already envisioned himself in State House. And his loudness about the matter has only fuelled embers of hostility against him.

The other contenders may not have deliberately conspired to isolate Raila. Rather, it is a communing of birds of a feather, a natural attraction between those who share grievances, a consortium united by mutual fear. Raila’s colleagues have simply panicked!

Against such odds, what should Raila do? He should consider putting on hold his volcanic presidential campaigns, albeit briefly. He may go into some political hibernation, a kind of limbo for a short stint.

He may look for ways of taming his noisy supporters, some of whom appear to be playing a less than neutral role at the ODM-Kenya secretariat. He can also appear at joint rallies with fellow aspirants and take extreme care not to outshine them.

In so doing, the aggrieved presidential hopefuls may earn a modicum of psychological reprieve, however ephemeral. This will temporarily cool temperatures. It will massage and assuage their fragile egos.

It will repair their ‘damaged presidential’ careers in quest of which they increasingly appear to be Raila’s flower girls. And the political capital emerging from such ‘levelling’ of the ground will be beneficial to all sides.

The less Raila appears to tower, overrun, smother, dictate, arm twist or outshine the other contestants, the healthier the ODM-Kenya family. If he wins the presidential nomination, the ‘new’ image will endear him to many of his compatriots.

Raila should not cultivate the usual schism that sets the victor apart from the vanquished. He and his supporters should not attempt premature celebration. And should he actually win the party ticket, he must promptly rein in his followers lest they overindulge and alienate the rest of the country.

A new image of Raila — harmless and listening, whose word is not fiat to his colleagues, whose supporters are more circumspect and patient — may turn out to be the icon who could convincingly win the hearts of his colleagues and the presidency.

The writer is a lecturer at the University of Nairobi