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East African Standard Online   Saturday June 30, 2007  The right person to lead ODM-Kenya By Mohammed Bashir The much-awaited ODMKenya presidential nomination has generated mixed reactions from within and without. Even the media have been sucked into the debate resulting in both objective and propaganda arguments. And there appears to be a concerted effort among the conservative party members to convince voters that change is not good for the country. As much as this group might want to project a public face of unity, all is not well in their camp. The only glue that binds them is the absolute and total lack of enthusiasm for change. Recently, these hitherto disparate political protagonists came up with a mechanism to derail Mr William Ruto's candidature in ODM-Kenya. To achieve this end, they came up with the Kanu special delegate's conference in Kasarani. To their dismay this attempt flopped. Undeterred, they threatened to quit ODM-Kenya and form another coalition unless their demands are met. But there are reasons to believe that all is not well in that camp. Just a while ago, one presidential hopeful was heard referring to Mr Kalonzo Musyoka as "pompous." This was due to the latter's fixation with his looks, and as a constant 'whiner' about Raila Odinga's refusal to back him. Whatever the case, the Orange leaders are using a leaked report that has since been dismissed by ODMKenya Council of Elders, as a basis of arriving on a consensus. There is reason to believe that the leaked report was authored early last year when Steadman still had Kalonzo as a favourite in the polls. No sooner did he fall out of favour with both Steadman and the general electorate than did a report favourable to him and likely to shore up his dwindling fortunes leak out. Using the now infamous report as a springboard, they have deluded themselves into believing that Raila is best suited for prime minister's position, which is not provided for in the Constitution. They are under the illusionthat Raila's core supporters can easily be transferred to another aspirant. Unfortunately, Raila has stated that he is not ready for anything less than presidency. These gentlemen know only so well what happened to Mr Musalia Mudavadi in the run up to 2002 General Election when voters rejected him after he ditched Rainbow Alliance and rejoined Kanu. Musalia had assumed that trust and loyalty could be transferred. And Raila risks the same treatment if he is convinced otherwise by ODM-Kenya 'elders.' By design, they have also decided that Raila can only muster voters from Nyanza just because he is a Luo. But on the contrary, the man has since 1997 made political inroads to all parts of Kenya. Kenya politics are largely governed by tribal arithmetic. It therefore follows that during the General Election, tribal numbers and configurations take precedence. Therefore, nobody ought to expect that Kalonzo would overwhelmingly carry Eastern Province, much less the rest of the country. The numbers from his Kamba community, and if in doubt the 2005 referendum results confirm, are not enough to take him to State House. Furthermore, his community does not have a history of voting as a bloc. But Mt Kenya community, the Kalenjin, the Luo and the Maasai speaking groups have always been known to vote as a bloc. Though the Kalenjin have always voted as a bloc, recent events have demonstrated a shift towards being a swing constituency. Anybody paying close attention to the expressions and polling results from Kass FM, a vernacular radio station broadcasting in Kalenjin, ought to have noticed that a majority of the callers support Raila's candidature. And as Mr Ken Wafula aptly puts, Musyoka's, "proximity to Mt Kenya region does not go down well with voters on the Western part of the country". Voters have increasingly become assertive of their rights and are aware of the issues that need to be addressed. The ODM-Kenya supporters have identified tribalism, security, economy, corruption, leadership and governance, commodity and basic food prices and poor infrastructure as some of the issues that they want tackled urgently. They want someone to drive the quest for positive change, not a "business as usual kind of personality". The party needs a leader with ability to mobilise, strategise, and articulate its programmes and platform. Voters want someone with the courage to fight and eradicate corruption. They want credible person who values integrity. That is the person Kenyans want. The writer is a political commentator http://www.eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?articleid=1143970629

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