07/17/2007 |
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ODMK UNITE FOR THE SAKE OF KENYA - Mathematical Factor Just in the concluded Steadman Polls ranking Kibaki as the best candidate (is anything to go by), lets consider the following arithmetic: Kibaki and Narc Kenya as a common enemy to defeat = 45% Raila suited as the best candidate in ODM-K = 25% Kalonzo as runners up in ODM K = 11% Ruto, Uhuru and Mudavadi = 6% collectively Considering that Steaman Polls is biased as it never summed up to 100% we assume that Julia Ojiambo, Najib Balala, Nazlin Umar and Joe Nyaga each got 1% at the worst, thus 1 X 4 = 4% total votes Given that in any poll not every one is interviewed, especially in the areas those perceived to opposose kibaki so that the reflection is that Kibaki is leading, we assume ODM-K bags in 6% of the votes and leaves Kibaki's part with 3% Now if all these were translated to an arithmetic reasoning introducing Uhuru factor we get: -If Uhuru stays put in ODM Raila + Kalonzo + Mudavadi + Ruto + Uhuru + Unpolled ODM presidential Contenders = 25+11+6+4 = 47 % (ODM Wins) As per the Polls Kibaki got 45% and would trail behind a joint ODM force. This means that only Unity of ODMK can deliver Kenya from Kibaki draconian rule -If Uhuru pulls out it will be (47-2)% = 45%. At this both would tie and we would say the dice was biased as can be seen - Total percentage of votes never summed to 100%. In this case we introduce other factors: Unpolled opposition areas = 6% Total = 45% + 6% = 51% thereby giving ODM K great lead Kibaki will bag 45 + 3 = 48% as they both share 1% spoilt votes. It follows therefore that whichever way ODM K will win only if they are united. Kenya Unite - Africa Unite - ODM Kenya Unite,..... Unite in Unity Unite, in diversity Unite! Jagoro: Arreddo Nyang You call me Arreddo Nyang, I'll respond Joluo.com Akelo nyar Kager, jaluo@jaluo.com |
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