Kuria-Mwangi <kjmwangi@...> wrote:

re: Uhuru, Kalonzo to form alliance

Bob-K,

I agree with you except for Kalonzo. He only has Kambas on his side (for Eastern). They share the area with Kibaki (the rest). The only way Kibaki would benefit from Ukambani would be if Kalonzo did not run for the presidency and Ngilu kept out. With Kalonzo supporting another candidate, it is possible to deliver many of the Kamba to his alliance although he would not do very well (if he never run).

You right that Kalonzo would be a spoiler of KBK but that has always been the case since we all knew that he was running.

It is ODM-K which would be losing more since the Kamba votes were seen to be in that column. Thus Kalonzo running outside this orbit denies it crucial votes thereby helping Kibaki (the arguement being...If you cant the votes, split them).

If Kalonzo will be on the ballot, he is likely to be another Nyachae unless he forms credible alliance (not with Uhuru or Ojiambo. These two dont have any votes to deliver to anybody). Assuming that ODM-K of Raila remains united, and Kalonzo runs, he will be a distance third or fourth. But he may end up being another Nyachae. in the cabinet with his followers.