Re: ODM:How did Raila and co convince Imanyara to hand over his party

Kuria-Mwangi kjmwangi@ . . . wrote:

Mzee Obote, This was a boardroom coup on the part of Tinga. Kalonzo will be left with ODM-K but I guess what matters is Nos.

One thing you can be sure about is that lawyer Imanyara is now a very rich man. I had suspected that he had reqistered ODM for sale and now he sells it when it's market value was at it's highest.

I had suspected that ODM-K would end up being like the original FORD but it seems we will now have ODM-K and ODM-K. Raila's ODM will do better than Kalonzo but I expect some further re-allignments once Raila is installed as Kiongozi. Some folks will join KBK and others Kalonzo. For Mudavadi, he may also walk out once Jirongo start to recruit members to his KADDU and start talking of running. Luyias are likely to camp to the party where a Mluyia will be running and that may complicate things for Mudavadi.

For ODM-K, it good perfomance in polls will come down. Remember it did very well because all those luminaries had their folks vote for it expecting that they will be running.

Luos will now decamp to ODM while Wakamba will remain in ODM-K. Ruto seems to be doing badly and if he doesnt run, he may end up being of sentimental value. We do hope that Biwott does not run because he would complicate things for Ruto. Moi is likely to play a very significant role in deciding how the Kaleo votes swings.

Coast will be a divided house. Shirikisho Party will be the party to give direction to the miji Kenda community but other parties will get some share of the votes.

Kibaki's DP and Narc-K will have to sort out their house but the party KBK picks up will eventually do well in polls once ODM picks up it's flag bearer.

Ngilu will have to move to ODM now that ODM-K is a no go zone. Since Kalonzo will be running, most Kamba MPs will be on ODM-K or the party Kalonzo takes over. Ngilu may end up losing her parliamentary seat. Her survival will only happen if she joins Kalonzo otherwise she will never help Raila in delivering Kamba votes and may not even deliver herself anywhere expect to Kalonzo. Even sticking with KBK will not help. She will be seen as a spoiler for Kalonzo unless she joins him. Her political star would have risen if Kalonzo failed to run and she run for the presidency.

Msikari Kombo will have to contend with Bukusu votes unless a Mluyia will not be on the ballot.

Jirongo will help KBK if he run for the presidency. Split the ODM votes and spoil for Tinga since he does not seem to be doing well there (Luyialand) I think Luyias just want to see a Mluyia on the ballot and I doubt whether Mudavadi as a running mate for Raila will assist him gain a foothold in Luyialand.