Re: ODM:How did Raila and co convince Imanyara to hand over his party

Kuria-Mwangi kjmwangi@... wrote:

Migosi Mahdy,

My thinking is that Kalonzo will sweep in Ukambani if he runs for the presidency. His, as somebody in the press today suggested will be a Nyachae kind of bid. Sweep ukambani to the extent that some folks such as Kibwana, Ngilu, Munyao will be swept off. This will only change if he does not run or another Kamba gives a stab on the presidency. If Ngilu does that, and she is the only one capable of doing so, then she will get her parliamentary seat and may be a few others.

Ngilu will not deliver anything to Kibaki or Raila as long as Kalonzo will be on the ballot. I would rather we wait till the last vote is counted on this one.

The same scenerio will be replayed elsewhere including Western and RV. If candidates from this regions stood for the presidency and were deemed as serious candidates (Jirongo, Biwott or Kombo), they will sweep the areas esp. in areas close to their home regions. For Mudavadi, i doubt a promise to VP will do much trick this time. Only if a spoiler does not come on the scene.

I agree with you on Coast and other areas where no serious candidates run for the presidency.

I think ethnicity, will play a very important role in the coming elections, as has happened before.