HOW AND WHY KIBAKI WILL WIN THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS , Letajeu Philip.

08/17/2007

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HOW AND WHY KIBAKI WILL WIN THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS

Since Raila's team will succeed in making Kalonzo look like a minor contender in this year's elections, the race will be mainly between Kibaki and Raila. The tribal tactics perfected by ODM won't work. This is how things are likely to be:

PROVINCE	REG. VOTERS	KIBAKI	RAILA	KIBAKI: RAILA
Rift Valley	3,381,890	1,488,032	1,893,858	44:56
Eastern	2,383,795	1,525,629	858,166	64:36
Central	2,221,020	2,109,969	111,051	95:01
Nyanza	2,062,712	268,153	1,794,599	13:87
Western	1,592,534	637,014	955,520	40:60
Nairobi	1,362,068	749,137	612,931	55:45
Coast	1,198,074	479,230	718,844	40:60
North Eastern	308,432	154,216	154,216	50:50
TOTALS	14,510,525	7,411,380	7,099,185	51:49

NOTES AND ASSUMPTIONS

1) The electorate will vote along tribal lines as per the ODM-K strategy.

2) RiftValleyProvince : The Kikuyu constitute 20% of the electorate in the province, and they will vote for Kibaki as a bloc. The other 80% (Kalenjin, Maa, Turkana and others) will vote for Kibaki and Raila according to the ratio 30:70 respectively.

3) EasternProvince : The ethnic composition of this province is as follows;

The Akamba = 45%, the Gema group = 42%, and the Northern Pastoralists (Borana, Rendille, Samburu, Gabra, Turkana) = 13%.

All the Gema will vote for Kibaki, as well as 22% of the Akamba, and 7% of the Pastoralists. The rest shall vote for Raila.

By Letajeu Philip.

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