Re: ODM:How did Raila and co convince Imanyara to hand over his party

On 8/14/07, Mahdy Abdi mahdyabdi@... wrote:

Nd. Kuria M,

Your analysis this time is way off the mark!. Kalonzo does not hold the key to Kamba votes in its entirety. There are a lot of new comers challegning the incumbents who have coalesced around Kalonzo and , my take is that many are extremely unpopular and are hanging on his coat tails to make back to parliament. In a nutshell, his so called supporters (MPs) will not make it back to parliament.

Ngilu's fortunes have risen and she's a force to reckon with. She'll point to Kalonzo not having the guts to stand up and fight in the party that has country-wide support and most likely to win the next government - he has squandered the Kamba's real chance of ascending to Ikulu.

Western Kenya (Luhyia's) are the most democratic lot and their votes are always split despite a majority going to one party. It is my contention that Western will give most of their votes to ODM (Tinga's group). Jirongo is inconsequential in the larger scheme of things as he finds the going tough and making himself relevant a herculean task. Mudavadi who has the support of the Western Kenya intellectuals ( a savvy group of political schemers) will deliver votes to which ever side he supports.

Moi and Biwott cannot deliver more votes than Ruto's axis. Most of RV is ODM and the meeting of the elders (Kalenjin/Luo/Luhya) has effectively neutralized the influence of Moi/Biwott in the equation.

Coast province votes will be split and North Eastern will go ODM (Tinga).

Despite the realignments, KBK will face a tough challenge fending off ODM.

Mahdy