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OPINION POLLS ARE NOT THE BEST BELLWETHER OF VOTERS’ CHOICE

By MIGUNA MIGUNA* - © 10 August 2006

At long last Kalonzo Musyoka, the Mwingi North Member of Parliament, has finally crossed the Rubicon. Like Julius Ceaser before him, the decision marks the beginning of the LDP’s version of the 49 B.C. civil war in Italy. Now, there is no turning back. As they say in more elegant parlance, Kalonzo has passed the point of no return. From this point onwards, he can either march forward undeterred and undefeated, or he can fall victim to the vicious political ammunition that will certainly be fired in his direction. It gives Kenyans a rare bird’s view of the man who has been coy, slippery and at times trying to eclipse the real Enigma, Tinga Tinga a.k.a. The Agwambo owadga Akinyi. Him of the Tosha and Tsunami fames.

If there is something that Tinga is legendary for in Kenya, it is his ability to organize, marshal and regiment foot soldiers from as far away as the swamps of Lake Victoria to the sand-washed beaches of the coastal strip. The Agwambo knows a thing or two about political struggles. Those in doubt should consult his recently published biography to assess the true mystery surrounding his involvements in past street, clandestine and democratic struggles, including his daring escape from Kenya dressed as a priest. In the language of the street, he has the political fists of a Mike Tyson. The man Kalonzo wants to square with left indelible marks in 2002 and November 21^st, 2005 political duels. The scars from these battles are prominently inscribed with his insignias on both former president Moi and the current president. These two battles have become The Agwambo’s trademarks or logos.

My advice to Kalonzo is to make sure that he is fit, agile and indefatigable. Either that or he should consider another career. Judging by the way Raila criss-crosses the country, the continent of Africa and the number of times he has flown over the Atlantic, Indian Ocean and the Pacific in the past few months should surely give anyone preparing to wrestle with this man pause for deep reflection.

Despite his recent public declaration that he would make the long-awaited formal announcement of his entrance into the already over-crowded race to succeed Mwai Kibaki outside his home turf of Ukambani, Kalonzo’s announcement on the 9^th of August 2006 was made in the safety of Machakos town, with his homeboys and girls cheering on. This is Kalonzo’s second mistake. The first major strategic error was to continue asking his rivals to the coveted seat to delay announcing their readiness for the march as he went around the country in the cover of darkness and his Kalonzo Musyoka Foundation, trying to prepare a path that would lead him to the gates of State House. Politically, these incidents made Kalonzo look like a coward, a pretender or one who would want to eat his cake and have it too. In politics, just like in real life, one has to make a clear choice. You eat the cake and forget about tomorrow, or you save the cake for the next day.

Kalonzo’s mistake number three concerns his plea to the Kamba politicians to support him because he is one of them. According to this novel political theory in modern democratic campaign typical of Kenya, Kalonzo sought the support of members of president Kibaki’s cabinet like Kivutha Kibwana, Joseph Munyao, Charity Ngilu and Kalembe Ndile, not because he has a well articulated vision, platform or ideology for Kenya, but simply because he shares with them some immutable genetic code, language, some customs and traditions, and obviously geographic affinity. Because of the biological accident of his pedigree, Kalonzo believes that he should be supported by the Kamba MPs for the big job.

One has to wonder how qualitatively different Kalonzo’s appeal is to John Michuki’s or Njenga Karume’s; the two having made a name for themselves as Kibaki’s chief andu aitu clarion callers. The appeal to base ethnic filial support is a major miscalculation of a man who believes that he deserves to lead us in this twenty first century.

The fourth mistake that is screaming for redemption from Kalonzo’s exciting announcement is his challenge to Tinga Tinga to cede LDP’s nomination to him because "the people of Kenya are the ones who have spoken and Raila has got no business going against the wishes of the people." That was as provocative as one could be under the circumstances. Kalonzo is trying to elbow Raila out of the race, primarily due to the Steadman Group’s published polls.

I literally cringed at that last statement. One has to wonder whether Kalonzo meant this as an inside joke for LDP members or he was seriously telling Kenyans that he believes in the opinion polls Steadman have been publishing with relish without once informing us as to the identity of those who have been commissioning and paying for them.

Well, I have sweet news for him. A few recent international examples will suffice. When Howard Dean III started his bid for the Democratic Party nomination in the US in May 2002, many thought that it was a "long shot" attempt. However, by autumn of 2003, he had surged to the front and surpassed all other contestants by a wide margin. Reputable opinion polls consistently declared him a shoe-in. He also outperformed his rivals in fundraising, bagging tens of millions of dollars from individual donors nicknamed Deanites or Deaniacs through the Internet alone. Along the way, he gobbled a few states in the Democratic Party primaries. Dean’s campaign team became a mean machine, outpacing even what Bill Clinton had produced during his two-term victories. Yet, when Dean reached Iowa, a state in which all opinion polls had placed him well ahead of his rivals, on January 19^th, 2004, his campaign did not just falter; it collapsed completely, leaving in its wake that infamous roar that sounded like a "yeaaagggh" scream. The rest, as they say, is history.

The same pattern occurred in Canada during the last elections. The current Canadian Prime Minister, Stephen Harper of the Conservative Party started the campaign against the incumbent Paul Martin of the Liberal Party as an underdog. In fact, he was less than a puppy. No opinion poll gave him even 15 per cent of the vote. Most pundits and pollsters were predicting a Liberal majority. A tiny number of pollsters were foreseeing a narrow Liberal minority. Absolutely no serious commentator, analyst or pollster gave Harper a chance. Harper himself appeared convinced that he was destined to form the Official Opposition, if he was lucky. Even that was viewed as a remarkable comeback by a party that had been literally decimated in 1994 when the former PM, Jean Chrétien’s Liberals routed Brian Mulroney’s Conservatives.

Ironically, just days before the actual voting, different media outlets started talking about a "possible surge," a "narrowing of the gap" by the Conservatives. And lo and behold, Harper triumphed over the incumbent Martin.

I believe that the same tale was recounted in the most recent German elections.

With these eerily bleak examples around the world, one has to seriously question why Kalonzo sounds so cocky. Or could it be desperation? Time only will tell.

____________________________________________________

*The writer is a Barrister & Solicitor in Toronto, Canada

Miguna@migunamiguna.com

Akelo nyar Kager, jaluo@jaluo.com

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