Re: Kibaki, Moi, Kalonzo, Uhuru,Maanzo the enemy of the people

Dear Nelson,

Thanks for your observations and predictions. If I were you, I would hesitate to comment so confidently today. Kenya is still some three to four months away from the general election of 2007. The disintegration of ODM-K as you postulate might be more harmful than beneficial to His Excellency President Mwai Kibaki. Why? The answer is straight forward.

If Kalonzo remained in ODM-K, Kibaki would have got a reasonable number of votes from the Kamba community in Kenya since Kalonzo would seen to be supporting Raila, Kambas who disagree with this construction will vote for Kibaki together with other Kenyans who might not be supporting Raila's candidancy out of Central Province.

This is the same reason Honourable Uhuru Kenyatta is out of the race. His majority supporters are from central province and if he is seen to support somebody else against his community then all his chances for possible success in 2012 are gone.

We have plotted the votes based on current political alienations and have computed that Kalonzo's candidacy will attract 12% of the overall vote compared to Kibaki's 42% and Raila's 45.8%. Raila is well placed because he has broken the Tribal Barrier in Kenya and has support from a good number of the dominant Kenyan communities (i.e., Masai, Kisii, Kuria, Kalenjin, Luo, Miji Kenda, and Luhya). This scenario was consolidated over the weekend when all of Nyanza politicians endorsed his candidacy. This is what triggered Kalonzo to bolt out.

If Kibaki appoints Ngilu the Vice President today, this calculation will change drastically since she will nearly win all the Kamba votes for Kibaki due to the leverage the opportunity offers to her and her community. This is hard talk and you are free to agree or disagree. In Kenya Democracy is about who can transcend the ethnic divide and creates a winning strategy. This is the main race. If you are thinking otherwise, you are dead wrong. Nobody hates Raila as such among the Kenyan politicians, they are damn perplexed by his abilities to get across and win even when people consider it a no-go zone. This is the Hallmark-Period!

ODM-K or No ODM-K with Raila at its helm will still go places. Watch This Space come December 2007. Ask yourself, how did Kibaki win 2002 form hospital? He must be a political genius!

Until the current scenario changes, it is too early to celebrate a win. Basically there are many dynamics to politics and these are only the current working figures. You can debate this.

Nice day!

Dr. Peter Okoth
Nairobi, Kenya