Very Interesting!

From: william munene

For those who didn't get a chance, please read the article by Judy Maina, sent by Michoma Douglass Moenga

WITH Kanu’s exit from the Orange Democratic Movement Kenya (ODM-K) the fundamental question that political observers should preoccupy their minds with is what the remnant parties will reap from the fallout.

It is equally important to probe why Kanu national chairman, Uhuru Kenyatta, has ever been committal on dragging his soldiers away from the Orange movement, the very outfit he painstakingly staved off searing criticism from his Central Kenya backyard to champion its cause during the referendum.

Kanu is exiting from the movement less vibrant than it came on board ahead of the November 2005 national referendum. And possibly the last laugh will be expressed by its partner in the movement, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) who will be left with a majority of Kanu MPs who have opposed Uhuru’s stand. The ensuing scenario will be a repeat of history that was made ahead of the 2002 General Election when members of the defunct National Development Party (NDP) pulled out of Kanu.The LDP will again dance in the glory of remaining behind with its secretary general, William Ruto and a horde of MPs from the Rift Valley who have openly stated that they are in ODM-K to stay.

Uhuru as an individual only added the tribal factor to the ODM-K mix during the referendum as the movement could boast of a Kikuyu bigwig on its side, but this made no significant difference in numbers as Uhuru failed to rally his kinsmen against the draft constitution. The preposition that LDP will reap from Kanu’s pullout is, however, based on the assumption that the political rivalry between Lang’ata MP Raila Odinga and his Mwingi North counterpart, Kalonzo Musyoka over ODM-K presidential ticket is just an expression of internal democracy as they have made Kenyans to believe.

Former president Daniel arap Moi who has been consistent in his opposition to ODM-K since it turned into a political party must, therefore, be prepared to suffer a double blow as the party that he steadfastly built over the years will remain scattered in the political scene. It’s noteworthy to point out here that some MPs who were elected on Kanu ticket in 2002 General Election have renounced their loyalty to the party and joined President Mwai Kibaki’s government of national unity.

The Kanu faction led by Biwott also presents a formidable challenge to Uhuru. But why would Uhuru walk into such heat that he can feel from afar? This is a game of political survival that politicians are adept at, especially when elections are abound.

While Uhuru may be presenting himself to Kenyans as a non-tribalist who acts on established principles, he knows that the difference between a constitutional referendum and a general election vis-à-vis his political career. Central Kenya is united in their support for President Mwai Kibaki’s re-election bid. To retain his Gatundu South parliamentary seat, Uhuru knows he must be on the safe side - disassociate himself from diehard opponents of Kibaki’s second term in State House. This will not only ensure Uhuru re-election to the Tenth Parliament but also place him at a vantage position of ascending to the presidency once Kibaki is through with his two constitutional terms.

The Kikuyu’s will be more willing to consider Uhuru’s candidacy in 2012 if he breaks ranks with Kibaki critics. This in essence does not mean Uhuru defects from Kanu, but he will use Kanu as a bargaining slate to be part of Kibaki’s post 2007 Government.The picture even develops more clearly with last week’s appointment of former President, Moi, as Kibaki’s special peace envoy to Sudan. Kibaki has finally caught up with the former president after warming up to him for more than three years. As for now, what matters to Uhuru and Moi could just be 2012 whose calculation must begin with the December General Election. The journey to rebuilding Kanu can wait!