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Raila leads Kibaki in city poll

Published on September 26, 2007, 12:00 am

By Patrick Wachira

_The Standard_

A Steadman poll commissioned by the Standard Group and carried out among Nairobi residents over the weekend shows President Kibaki and challenger Mr Raila Odinga locked in a close and tight race.

The poll shows Raila leading the President by four percentage points, in what amounts to a statistical dead heat that could change either way for the two men as the General Election nears.

But quite significant for the President is that the poll rates Party of National Unity (Panu), his newly unveiled re-election vehicle that is just about 10 days old today, only second to ODM.

In the survey, 44 per cent of those interviewed in Nairobi said they would vote for Raila, while 40 per cent said they would go for Kibaki if the elections were held today.

Panu¢s surge in popularity could serve as a warning to feuding affiliate members, who are pushing for individual party nominations for civic and parliamentary candidates. The survey shows Panu has not only edged out all the coalition parties that shelter under its umbrella, but it also ranks significantly above Mwingi North MP Mr Kalonzo Musyoka¢s ODM-Kenya.

Some 507 people were interviewed in this latest Steadman poll conducted between September 22 and 23.

Musyoka, who has told President Kibaki that he is his biggest challenger, was a distant third with 10 per cent in what has variously been billed as a three-horse race.

However, there are still some 5 per cent undecided voters and one per cent who do not know how they will vote.

This outcome, even though the poll only targeted city residents, shows a dramatic shift from any such previous polls, which have consistently put President Kibaki ahead of the pack, with 45 per cent of the support of Kenyans.

In the very earliest polls, Raila had trailed both Kalonzo and Kanu chairman Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, who has since thrown his lot with Kibaki, having abandoned his own quest for the presidency.

Of those interviewed, 37 per cent felt that the newly launched Party of National Unity, under which Kibaki will run, had enhanced Kibaki¢s chances for re-election.

Some 34 per cent felt that the new party, Panu, had reduced President Kibaki¢s chances for re-election while another 23 per cent said Panu has not changed his chances for re-election. Another 6 per cent said they did not know.

And the party of choice, according to the survey, was Orange Democratic Party (ODM), which got the support of 45 per cent of those interviewed, followed by Panu, still in its infancy, with 21 per cent while Narc-Kenya got 8 per cent.

The original Narc is apparently faring badly, with 3 per cent while DP, which Kibaki founded in 1991, has 2 per cent as Ford Kenya and Ford people, both of which have declared support for Kibaki, tied at 1 per cent. Six per cent of those interviewed said they would support none while 2 per cent said they did not know.

The survey is dubbed the East Africa Social Political Economic and Cultural Barometer and is carried out weekly in Nairobi. The Standard has been running weekly polls over the last four weeks.

The survey sought to establish the effect of the declaration of Panu as the party of choice for the re-election of Kibaki as well as to ascertain the political party affiliation of Nairobi residents.

It also sought to establish the popularity ratings of the presidential candidates in Nairobi.

The interviews were conducted at household level and were distributed in each administrative unit of Nairobi, according to the population distribution. Of those interviewed, 61 per cent were male while 39 per cent were female.

Out of those who took part in the survey, 13 per cent are in Westlands, 9 per cent in Dagoretti, 5 per cent in Kamukunji, 15 per cent each in Embakasi and Starehe, 17 per cent in Kasarani and 13 per cent in Lang¢ata and 14 per cent in Makadara.

Some 33 per cent of those interviewed are aged between 18-24, another 43 per cent are aged between 25-34 and another category, consisting of 14 per cent, was aged between 35-44.

Those aged over 45 years comprised 9 per cent while 1 per cent declined to answer questions.

In July, President Kibaki enjoyed 45 per cent of the support of Kenyans in a national poll which, however, had fallen from 51 per cent in March, but still well ahead of his closest rival, Raila Odinga at 25 per cent.

Kibaki had polled 42 per cent last December in a survey by the Steadman Group, followed by Odinga at 14 per cent and Kalonzo at 20 per cent.

Kalonzo came a distant third at 11 per cent, followed by former Vice-President Mr Musalia Mudavadi at 3 per cent and William Ruto at 2 per cent in the July results.

Akelo nyar Kager, jaluo@jaluo.com

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