Kibaki will not be defeated by leaked polls but by the collective will of the Kenyan people.

From: Robert Wambani

Those numbers from National Intelligence Services (NSIS) may be frightening to Kibaki and those who support him, but from where I sit, things could be worse for the big boy.

It would be foolhardy for the ODM to start counting their eggs and jostling for cabinet positions. In politics and particularly in an election period even one week can change everything.

The good news for ODM is that often, it is the incumbent that risks scandals and revelations that can cause them political grief. But we are dealing with a very volatile opposition group which is a mixed bag. They can make mistakes and Kibaki's campaign needs ODM to make mistakes. If the ODM runs a mistake free campaign and if they conduct their nominations fairly well they will beat Kibaki.

Raila's handlers have one big task. Make sure there are no glaring mistakes. So far so good. Also Raila has to make sure he does NOT get caught up in sideshows like talking to Moi when Moi tries to revise history and blame Kenyans for opposing his dictatorship. Raila should leave Moi to Kenyans. Already he is having a nightmare being booed by people who worshiped him.

We can handle Moi, Raila should leave him to us and get on with the affairs of nation building post Kibaki/Moi nonsense of the last two years. But maybe he had to tell the old goof off. But that is enough. There are more important things and I think that is where Raila's focus should be.

One more thing , remember those polls from the NSIS have not factored in the latest blunder of Kibaki with this multi-headed monster called Panu and the mess it has generated. If that mess continues for another week or two as we hit October, Kibaki's team will be unredeemable.

As things stand I don't see how they are going to fix the mess. Ironically the main problem is in Central Province where Kibaki has all the votes. The simplistic question to ask would be why are Kibaki's die hard supporters spoiling things for him.

The reality is more complex. People want to go to parliament. Some of these dudes think Kibaki has already won anyway so why bother. They want to ride on his back. Little do they know they are riding his back to the opposition benches. The trouble is if the Central Province groupies settle their problem which can only be done by having one vehicle called Panu, their other "partners" Ford K, Ford P and Kanu will implode. It is a classic catch 22.

The other issue is that maybe, just may be the ODM agenda is resonating with Kenyans. That Katiba thing with devolution is catching fire even though we were told Kenyan don't care about the constitution anymore. State tribalism is sickening to many Kenyans and they blame it on Kibaki.

I think the ODM has read the mood of the nation pretty well and that is always helpful in putting together a winning team. But is still very much a marathon and anybody can win it.

The real fear for Kibaki is that his folks may panic and start doing some really stupid things like what Nyachae did last week. If that continues the game is over. Cautious optimism for ODM. That is a good place to start.