The flip side of Steadman polls and Govt initial vote rigging schemes

From: Edward Bansa

Wakenya,

The question is what if? Don't rush, relax and think about it. How does one jump from 25% to 47%? Why are PNU members just comfortable with the polls and even calling it a true reflection of what has been happening? Why do they say this is all because Kibaki has not been campaigning? Kibaki has been dishing out districts and colleges and asking for votes while on "working" visits to various parts of the country, isnt that campaigning? What more campaigns does he need?

Opinion polls are very often used to influence elections and discourage competitors. Steadman never gave the no-vote any lead during the referendum campaigns despite indications that orange was in clear lead upto and during the polls. Some radio stations stopped relaying results when it became clear that yes vote was loosing. Others only gave results of areas of yes wins. How does steadman explain more than 50% leads it has been giving Kibaki even after the referendum? There is something suspect about this polls.

ODM should be the last to accept the polls as a true reflection of the electorate attitude. Politics in Kenya is mostly local and voting patterns follows community blocks, clans and family lineages. Euphoria is a major factor in urban centers and very rarely do you hear of indecisions. Who ever tells you they are undecided is either unregistered to vote or is not just letting you know which they are casting their votes.

In my opinion, repeat my opinion, I think the current poll results have been doctored to prop up Raila so high with the explanation that he has achieved this because of his campaigns and recent nomination to lead ODM. The second scheme is to make ODM and their supporters accept the polls as unbiased and therefore give Steadman some level of credibility. Remember this is a pollster that consistently got referendum polls wrong. Can their aim then be any different from now?.

What has made Kibaki loose so much ground in three months? The economy has improved again to 6.1%, the Kroll report did not touch him. There has been no Artur saga and he has finally declared his stand and his party. All this should have been positives and should have made him actually widen the gap. Instead he plummets.

The scheme here is to make the polls acceptable and credible first and then start bring down Raila numbers with every successive polls that will be coming up. Dont be surprised when the next polls will give Raila and Kibaki neck and neck, then Kibaki will surge a head and continue to widen the gap untill polling day.

So when the incumbent goes a head and rigs the election by whatever means, it will be no surprise because the opinion polls have been polling him way ahead of his competitors. That explains why PNU affiliates are not already but even eager to accept the recent results and talk no negatives. They say all that will change when Kibaki starts campaigning.

If steadman thinks am wrong, then they should explain to what factors made Raila jump from 25% to 47% and how Kibaki remained popular with almost 60% approval even after loosing the plebiscite which he campaigned for.

Edward