VOTER TURNOUT WILL DETERMINE THE WINNER , DAILY NATION, SUNDAY, 14&21 Oct.; sent by Elijah Odhiambo

Hello,

Kindly find attached an analsysis of opinion polls and the indicative values of the margins of victory for ODM.

If the turnout is low PNU has a real good chance especially because of incumbency-it is easier to rig if the margin is minimal.

So go out and vote in large numbers if you want to make a statement this time round.

E.N

You can include the steadman sample just to monitor the trends

KIBAKI
PROVINCE	TOTAL	STRATEGIC	INFOTRACK	STEADMAN	CONSUMER
NAIROBI	1,161,708.00	392,657.30	336,895.32		383,363.64
COAST	1,083,873.00	287,226.35	379,355.55		260,129.52
N/EASTERN	265,830.00	91,977.18	91,977.18		98,357.10
CENTRAL	2,017,073.00	1,777,041.31	1,714,512.05		1,835,536.43
EASTERN	2,190,090.00	976,780.14	657,027.00		854,135.10
RIFT VALLEY	3,055,694.00	614,194.49	1,069,492.90		1,069,492.90
WESTERN	1,434,102.00	179,262.75	200,774.28		286,820.40
NYANZA	1,835,248.00	216,559.26	91,762.40		201,877.28
TOTAL	13,043,618.00	4,535,698.79	4,541,796.68		4,989,712.37


RAILA
PROVINCE	TOTAL	STRATEGIC	INFOTRACK	STEADMAN	CONSUMER
NAIROBI	1,161,708.00	546,002.76	650,556.48		522,768.60
COAST	1,083,873.00	696,930.34	574,452.69		606,968.88
N/EASTERN	265,830.00	153,383.91	199,372.50		148,864.80
CENTRAL	2,017,073.00	125,058.53	100,853.65		100,853.65
EASTERN	2,190,090.00	251,860.35	284,711.70		109,504.50
RIFT VALLEY	3,055,694.00	2,129,818.72	1,588,960.88		1,558,403.94
WESTERN	1,434,102.00	1,144,413.40	1,089,917.52		1,032,553.44
NYANZA	1,835,248.00	1,530,596.83	1,559,960.80		1,559,960.80
TOTAL	13,043,618.00	6,578,064.83	6,048,786.22		5,639,878.61

TURNOUT 100%		2,042,366.04	1,506,989.54		650,166.24
TURNOUT 50%		1,021,183.02	753,494.77		325,083.12

NB:THE ONLY ASSUMPTION IS THAT VOTER TURNOUT IS 100%				OR 50%
THIS CALCULATIONS ARE BASED ON THE LATEST OPINION POLLS BY THE 4 FIRMS
OFCOURSE STEADMAN BEING THE MOST REPUTABLE AND CONSUMER SHOWING THE
GREATEST DISPARITY AMONG THE 4 BUT STILL ODM WINS;SO ALL OTHER ANALYST
CAN KEEP ON MASSAGING THEIR EGO AND CONSOLING PNU BUT THE DIE IS CAST
THIS CALCULATIONS ARE BASED ON THE LATEST OPINION POLLS BY THE 4 FIRMS
THIS IS MATHEMATICAL ,NO ASSUMPTIONS AND THEORIES HAS HAS BEEN OUTLINE IN
SOME 'US BASED ANALSTS		WHO THINK THAT KENYAN VOTES ARE WEIGHTED AND THAT AN
ELECTRAL COLLEGE WILL GIVE KIBAKI VICTORY
REF:DAILY NATION SUNDAY 21ST OCTOBER 2007 AND 14TH OCTOBER 2007