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Dear Fellow Kenyans;
Statistics is both an art and a science; hence, the poll numbers in Kenya can be manipulated in a number of different ways to arrive at varying conclusions. However, I consider the following analysis to be more precise (not influenced by tribal bias); hopefully the actual results will do it justice!
 
ASSUMPTIONS/ CONDITIONS:

1. The number of registered voters = 13,000,000 (round numbers for sake of calculations)

2. Expected Voter turn out=65% (nationwide) =around 8,500,000 (to the nearest 100,000)
3. I am going to ignore the Kalonzo factor and only consider the two front runners; however, I will consider the Kalonzo factor in Eastern Province where he commands a large percentage of the Kamba vote.

4. I am going to increase voter turn-out in both Nyanza and Central to 70% because of the tribal impetus-Nyanza Province for Raila and Central Province for Kibaki
5. I am going to round off the numbers to the nearest 1000 in some cases.

NYANZA=1,835,000 (0.7)=1,284,000
90%=Raila=1,155,600
10%=Kibaki=128,400

WESTERN=1,434,000(0.65 )=932,100
70%=Raila=652,400
30%=Kibaki=430,200

 
RIFTVALLEY=3,055,000( 0.65)=1,985,750
70%=Raila=1,390,000
30%=Kibaki=595,700
 
CENTRAL=2,017,000 (0.7)=1,411,950
93%=Kibaki=1,313,000
7%=Raila=99,000
 
EASTERN=2,190,090 (0.65)=1,370,908
60%=Kalonzo=822,500
30%=Kibaki=411,300
10%=Raila=137,000
 
NORTHEASTERN=265,000 (0.65)=172,000
75%=Raila=137,600
25%=Kibaki=43,000
 
COAST=1,080,000 (0.65)=702,000
60%=Raila=421,200
40%=Kibaki=280,000
 
NAIROBI=1,161,000 (0.65)=754,650
55%=Raila=415,000
45%=Kibaki=340,000
 

Raila's Total 1,155,600+652,400+1,390,000+99,000+137,000+137,600+421,000+415,000=

4,270,600 votes

Kibaki's Total 128,400+430,200+595,700+1,313,000+411,000+43,000+280,000+340,000=

3,541,300 votes

NOTES: 

1. Kalonzo Factor : the total votes tallied above=8,016,900; the math doesn't account for around 688,100 votes, which I will award to Kalonzo. If you take Kalonzo's Eastern vote of 822,500 + 680,100= 1,510,600 votes
2. 1,510,600/8,500,000=17% of the total vote-supported by the latest Steadman Polls!

 
CONCLUSION: Both Raila and Kibaki will each gain at least more than 25% of the required total vote in 5/8 Provinces but Raila will beat Kibaki by over 700,000 in total votes!!! 

By: George Kyalo Mutua

      Atlanta, GA, USA

Akelo nyar Kager, jaluo@jaluo.com

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