From: Sang Kip

Don't let Mungiki go on beheading Kenyans

Kibaki still has a lot of life in him but this has been more disastrous than anyone ever imagined. They started terribly with the referendum too, but this was brutal.

In your earlier post here you wondered how come Kibaki could not hold to any other region outside Central Province. Believe me it was not for luck of effort.

Kibaki's plan all a long was premised on the myth that once Raila is nominated the ODM candidate, the Luhyas would rebel and Mudavadi will be forced to decamp and Western will be in the box. We told him he was dreaming but of course he chose to listen to his paid helpers. They are hopeless. Kibaki's people believed ODM could not hold Western and Rift Valley.

The disaster for Kibaki started when the ODM tremor gave him nothing. Kalonzo ran away with Ukambani and ODM consolidated their base. Kibaki got zero. Then the mistakes started raining in. The trouble for Kibaki is that all these blunders are initially propped up as master plans then they fall a part.

The second trouble for Kibaki after the crumbs from ODM never showed up was the concept of a partyless president. Kibaki was getting bad coverage about the fact that two months to the election he had not chosen which party to run for. Then in panic Kibaki jumped onto this Panu thing, but my sense is that they didn't think it through.

Originally it was announced only Kibaki will contest for the party. Then everybody started laughing at the very idea and we here on Jukwaa had our kicks at it. Then somewhere somebody realized they need joint nominations and the discussions and disagreements about that hasn't stopped ever since. Today the big agenda for Panu is whether they will have joint nominations or go solo as parties. That is not what Kenyans want to hear.

It was quite amusing seeing Kibaki jumping from Ford P meeting to Kanu meeting. In both meetings they would say we support Kibaki, but we will nominate our own candidates etc. Can you imagine the president of the republic has no party and has to jump from one to the other looking for votes? I was surprised Nyachae didn't meet him with his warriors when he "invaded" his meeting.

The bottom line is that everybody is confused about the direction Panu will take in nominations and you can expect them to fight over that for the next two weeks. In fact my guess is that nobody is going to be talking about Panu now that the launch is done. They will go back to bickering and fighting something they are very good at.

As a whole Panu has become something Kenyans joke and laugh about. They even call it names like panua which ranks it up there in the dirty words list. That is not a place you want the president's party in.

The idea of Kibaki friendly parties looked good at the beginning but in reality it will kill all those parties in one sweep and leave ODM as the only national party for a long time to come.

Imagine Kibaki loses the election! Panu will die a natural death because it is a party formed for the sole purpose of getting Kibaki re-elected. If that doesn't happen the party will disappear as Kibaki retires and then we will have Narc K and DP based in Central, ODM K based in Ukambani and both Fords will be history. Has anybody thought about what that may mean for the country? It means there will be no viable opposition.

Remember the new law to finance parties from the Treasury also speficies that when different parties vote for the president, then those parties will only be financed on the basis of their M.P's votes. In other words all Panu parties will get zero money if they don't participate as individual parties in parliamentary elections. Just one more unintended spanner thrown in the works. When it rains, it pours for sure.

The third blunder for Kibaki also started as a big boom. Moi endorsed Kibaki and Kibaki supporters were all rah rah about the so- called profesa of politics being on their side. Unfortunately the Moi support has helped Raila and ODM in a big way.

The one item Raila and ODM has that resonates almost wildly with Kenyans is the idea of change. Kenyans are telling their politicians, the status quo is not an option. Nothing makes the Raila and the ODM look better than to see the forces lined up against them. When Moi goes nuclear accusing Raila of all sorts of things, it confirms something for Kenyans - finally they have someone out there who can stand up to the Mois, Nyachaes and Kibakis. Once again something that was supposed to be good is turning bad, very bad.

Fourth problem is Uhuru. This was another move cooked at State House to shock and awe us. It has failed. The Uhuru connection re-enforced the Gema cliche and gave Kibaki no new votes. And then Uhuru now comes in with his own demands of fielding Kanu candidates and just muddies the waters further.

Nyachae's shameful and violent actions were pretty bad for Kibaki. It set a bad tone and made Kibaki and his crew look terrible. Then Nyachae being who he is didn't know what to do. Seeing him make an angry speech at the Panu launch I almost threw up. Angry old men with personal vendettas are not going to help Kibaki. Same with that fool Mwakwere with his Maitha nonsense which is also just embarrassing Kibaki.

Kibaki's supporters are good in only one thing- namely abusing Raila and for four years they have done it with very little to show for their efforts. If I was them I would change tact but wait for them to hold competitions on who can win the Raila bashing trophy.

The ODM has to ignore them completely as they have done. The ODM has to focus on their theme of change and tell Kenyans exactly what those changes are going to be.

It is interesting that everybody says the constitution is no longer an issue. In reality it is the biggest item on the campaign trail. When Kenyans say they want change that has everything to do with a new constitution. As I have said many times if Kibaki did not sabotage the new Katiba he will be walking back to State House.

The change mantra also has a lot to do with Kibaki's perceived tribalism. Why is Mutua buying newspaper ads to print the names of employees? Why is Kibaki talking about the poor? Simple. Kibaki knows he is losing this election because of Ukabila that has infested State House and OP. He also knows the 6.1% growth is not selling to the majority of Kenyans who are living in poverty.

The sweet news for ODM is that they have become the incumbent without state power. Kibaki is playing catch up and responding to their messages to Kenyans.

The message of trust between the people and the leaders which Raila spoke about in Bungoma that too is resonating. Kibaki and his people thought the trust item was going to be used against Raila. Remember the "Raila cannot be trusted" slogan. That has backfired. Raila is now the one very convincingly telling Kenyans Kibaki cannot be trusted based on his unfulfilled promises to Kenyans. Even that much maligned MOU has come back to haunt Kibaki. Nobody is willing to make deals with Kibaki because nobody trusts him. How come everybody is making deals with Raila?

The one thing Kibaki and his folks underestimated is Raila's ability to network with people. People are comfortable with him because he is directly accessible as opposed to Kibaki who is layered behind all sorts of formal and informal power structures. Even little pranks like visiting that widow in Bungoma and the one hundred car tour of Nairobi on Sunday are not helping. Kibaki is not a people person. That is just they way things are.

So on top of all these things comes the polls from Steadman just when Kibaki is set to launch his party. That was a gift from hell to Kibaki. I don't trust Steadman polls, but one has to admit it hit Kibaki in the wrong place at the wrong time, coming hot on the heels of another disturbing Artur report which for the first time fingered Kibaki directly as the man behind that hideous act.

One also has to marvel at the seer magnitude of ODM logistical supports. Look how they turned around the fiasco with Kibaki and co stopping their rally in Nairobi. In just about 24 hours they switched off their operations from Nairobi to Bungoma and held one of the most successful rallies in that area in recent memory just after Kibaki was there. How did they pull that off?

It was an amazing act that took the air out of Panu in a very big way. Imagine Kombo and his dwindling group of Ford K supporters. Here was Kombo in Nairobi talking about "One Dangerous Man" (ODM) and here was the dangerous man holding a huge rally in Kombo's own constituency and being accorded a hero's welcome. Kombo must have been a very disturbed guy during the launch.

So that is the week that was, but knowing the ODM crew, they are not resting thinking we got this in the box. This is a marathon and Kibaki is going to put up the fight of his life, but it could get really bad for Kibaki.

If things don't better, Kibaki and his crew are going to go nuclear and then they are going to make some real huge mistakes. But we are ready form them whichever route they want to take out of State House.

Joseph Niva
Business Development Manager
Clarkson Notcutt (Insurance Brokers) Ltd
P.O. Box 30279-00100
Nairobi Kenya.
Tel: 2731310/1/2/3
Fax: 2713772
Web: www.clarknot.com