THE TRUTH ABOUT STEADMAN POLLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

By Tony Rogers

A lot has been said about Steadman and their controversial opinion polls. Some people say they believe their polls, others say they are manipulated while others are not sure. The truth of the matter is that Steadman is a powerful political instrument that has been employed by certain foreign powers in conjunction with ODM and some section of the media to shape the politics of this country and ultimately to influence the political destiny of Kenya and its people.

Contrary to popular believe, Steadman, has never predicted correctly the outcome of any election held in Kenya. During the General elections of 1992, 1997 and 2002, the only opinion polling agents who were active in Kenya were actually Institute of Education in Democracy (I.E.D) and International Republic Institute (I.R.I). Note that these two bodies are actually NGOs with absolutely no profit motive.

Steadman which is commercial and profit making company came into the political opinion polling limelight around September 2005 during the Referendum campaign. It released its first opinion polls on the referendum some times in September, which gave the Banana team 32% and Orange team 46% and said 22% was UN – decided. The actual referendum results were Orange 57% and Banana 43%. After the release of the results Steadman curiously claimed that it had actually predicted similar results at the eve of voting but had held it back to avoid influencing the voting pertains. The truth of the matter is that those polls were never published even after the referendum polls. However, the point is that in spite of the Media obsession with Steadman opinion polls, Steadman has never predicted the results of any General elections in Kenya.

That bring us back to the next critical question about the activities of Steadman and the seemingly obsession of the Media about Steadman opinion polls. What is there interest? Who do they work for? After the fall out of Kibaki government with the American and The British government due to his insistence on looking to the East instead of the traditional West for financial assistance and better terms of trade, a plot was hatched to ensure that Kibaki administration does not secure a second term in office. Immediately Steadman got hooked into this elaborate plot. Their brief was to systematically and continuously create certain politicians, finish others and at the same time shape the thinking and opinion of Kenyans. Some sections of the mainstream media were also hooked into the plot. Their brief was to give publicity to the Steadman activities and also to reinforce their assertions.

Hon Raila Odinga was identified as the man to bring down Kibaki. This is because he was perceived to be the most charismatic and had also a bitter axe to grind with Kibaki after the dishonoring of the MOU. However, before anything, the ground had to be prepared in order to create a formidable opposition for President Kibaki. The Kamba community was identified as a community that could easily throw their support behind Kibaki and hence consolidate his grip on power. This is because contrary to popular believes members of the Akamba community are actually close cousins of Kikuyus, however, successful regimes have successful planted powerful wedge between the two communities to ensure that they never come up with a formidable unit pact.

That is the reason why Hon. Kalonzo Musyoka was created by Steadman as a presidential material. Steadman carried many opinion polls that showed Kalonzo way above anybody else as the most popular presidential candidate. This was in spite of the fact that there were no discernable fundamentals that appeared to reinforce Kalonzo’s national popularity. The idea here was actually to create a king for the Kamba community so that they are not tempted to embrace president Kibaki hence keeping them firmly in opposition. At the same time Hon. Kaluki Ngilu had to be finished politically, since she was friendlier toward the Kibaki administration.

The other region that was closely marked was western Kenya. The Bukusu community was perceived to be close to Kibaki government since most MPs from the area were members of Kibaki’s cabinet. A plot was therefore hatched to weaken and disorganize their leaders. That explains why in spite of Hon. Musikali Kombo being a powerful cabinet minister and a leader of a the biggest party in western Kenya i.e Ford Kenya, has never featured prominently in any Steadman opinion poll. Instead, it was Musalia Mudavadi who was propped up as a credible leader in spite of the fact that he never even made it to parliament in 2002 General Election. The idea here was actually to paint Kombo as a weak leader who is not even worth being followed even by members of his Bukusu community and in extension to weaken Kibaki stronghold of Western Kenya and in particular the Bukusu community.

Hon. William Ruto was earmarked and identified as the man who would rally the Kalenjin community. This was because former President Moi was perceived as hostile to Raila Odinga and would refuse to play ball when the time comes. However, Ruto’s brief was slightly different from that of others. He was perceived as very ambitious, intelligent and aggressive. He therefore had to be seriously managed so that he does not end up up-staging project Raila. Steadman opinion polls had therefore to be manipulated to ensure that William Ruto could not command a respectable following even within his Rift Valley province leave alone the National scale. Using Steadman and sections of the media such as Kass FM, Raila Odinga was portrayed as being even more popular in the Rift Valley than Ruto himself. The idea here was to ensure that Ruto does not get tempted to contest for the Presidency and hence split the Kalenjin vote. And to deflate his ego completely, a plot was hatched to deny him visa to travel abroad ensuring that he could not raise funds to finance a presidential campaign. He was therefore forced to capitulate and back project Raila Odinga.

Musalia Mudavadi on the other hand was perceived as a lame duck easy to push and with no significant political connections and networks of his own. However, for him to be useful to project Raila Odinga, he had to be repackaged and portrayed as the most important leader of the Luhya community. Steadman started featuring him in their manipulated opinion polls, a section of the media was also roped in to rebuild his image and paint him as the King of Luhyas.

Toward the countdown of the General elections Steadman started running scare crow opinion polls showing that President Kibaki was way ahead of his opponent in the presidential contest. Many of unsuspecting Kenyans kept on believing these manipulated polls. Least did they know their real intention. The real intentions of these polls were not to give the actual condition on the ground but to scare the wrangling opposition to unite so that they could have a chance of beating Kibaki.

The well designed political scheme of foreigners fronted by Steadman, appeared to be going as per plan however, a hitch cropped up. Hon. Kalonzo Musyoka, started to rebel and was refusing to support project Raila. Steadman had build him too much and had eventually lost control of him. They had unwittingly actually made him believe that he could be president. To deal with him, they had to start lowering his opinion rating and at the same time raising those of Raila in order to coerce him to play ball. However, Kalonzo held his ground and eventually broke off taking with him ODM Kenya.

In July Steadman manipulated opinion polls. President Kibaki was placed ahead of his rivals at 40%, Kalonzo at 13%, Raila at 25%, Musalia at 8%, Ruto at 6% Balala at 1% and Uhuru at 1%.If you add up Raila’s, Mudavadi’s, Ruto’s and Balala’s percentages, they amount to 40%. However, immediately after the stage managed ODM Kasarani nomination in september, Raila’s ratings shot up to 47% while Kalonzos dropped to 8% and Kibaki to 38%. This scenario does not absolutely make sense. However, the idea here was now to paint Raila Odinga as having taken an un-sailable lead as the General election entered the home stretch. The other motive was to paint Kalonzo as a non entity and coerce him either to rejoin project Raila so as to reduce the contest to a two horse race as per the original script or to relegate him to political oblivion. That explains why Steadman has consistently given Kalonzo 8%, this is unlikely to change up to the election date. And to reinforce the Steadman polls propaganda, the foreign masters had to look for apparent independent opinion pollsters, that is how Infotrack Harris and Strategic Research were brought into the fray. Their brief was actually to collaborate the Steadman findings and hence legitimize the fraud.

As we race toward the General Election countdown, Steadman, Infotrack Harris and Strategic Research will continue working in concert by manipulating opinion of Kenyans to paint Raila Odinga as the man who will win the Elections. It does not matter how much efforts that both Kibaki and Kalonzo will put on the ground, the situation as per this merchants for hire shallow not shift significantly. The ultimate aim is to shape Kenyans opinion by brain washing them over time that Raila Odinga has won the race. Hence discouraging them from voting for Kibaki, or from voting at all.

THAT IS THE BITTER TRUTH ABOUT STEADMAN. IT IS A MUCH WIDER SCHEME THAN MANY KENYAN’S IMAGINE. HOWEVER, THEIR PROJECT WILL ULTIMATELY BE THOUROUGHLY HUMILATED AT THE POLLS ON DECEMBER 27TH 2007. GOD BLESS KENYA.