re: CAN RAILA GUARANTEE EQUITABLE APPOINTMENTS TO GOVERNEMENT?

Theres an email that has been circulating the internet, it's portrays a scenario where former President Daniel arap Moi wakes up and finds that his worst nightmare has come true ; Raila Odinga is the new Head of State. Although abit exaggerated and with plenty of humor, it relayed thoughts of what if President Kibaki lost this election.

President Kibaki and his team are in high gear right now selling his candidacy. As we draw close to the Election date, Its all systems go for many. But there have to be afew people perched in the echelons of power who must be thinking "what if he loses the election", if not they better start thinking about the inevitable eventuality that Kibaki could lose. After the successful PNU Presidential launch at the Nyayo Stadium and the subsequent equally well attended ODM rally that followed the week after, many in Kibakis camp may have come to the realization that this election can go either way.

Kibaki has maintained a strange jinx all through his political career, it?s an uncanny ten year spell in most senior positions he has held. He served as Finance Minister for ten years, Vice President for ten years, was in the opposition for ten years , and wants to keep that going by serving as President for ten years. The threat on his Presidency is real and I hope his handlers are being cautious about getting complacent at this time. With his closest contestant Raila Odinga leading most of the opinion polls, is there an exit strategy for the President in place ?.

If Kibaki loses ,will he go to Parliament as the leader of the opposition ?,I personally don?t see a former Head of State sitting in Parliament answering questions from the opposition bench , even though he has served in that position before. Going back as an Ex-President doesn't seem very plausible to me. So will Kibaki then chose to resign from his seat as MP for Othaya and support his son Jimmy or Narc-Kenya activist Mary Wambui Mwai in a subsequent by-election ? . What will happen to the conglomerate of parties supporting him, will they remain intact after a loss .These are legitimate questions and I hope someone somewhere in Kibakis camp is thinking about it.

This would be a unique situation where the incumbent loses an election and continues to serve as a Member of Parliament. It would also set an interesting precedent, of course all hypothetical for now, but not as far fetched as it may sound. Early planning and projection can help alleviate a situation like the one that Moi and his team faced upon the loss that NARC served them in 2002. There was total chaos in the Moi camp, because no one contemplated that KANU would lose that election. His people were scrambling aimlessly all over the place, like slaughtered chickens without heads.

A Kibaki loss would also throw the already highly volatile succession issue for Uhuru Kenyatta and others for 2012 into total disarray . The arithmetic would change dramatically because many are relying on Kibakis support as incumbent for their bid in the next Presidential election. I also foresee the opposition disintegrating as it did in 2003, with many MP's from the opposition benches opting to move to the government side. Traditionally a coalition of parties that is loosely bound,does not sustain a formidable Opposition in Parliament.

Lets face it many people would rather be in Government. In 2002 at the advent of the NARC Government ,we had a combination of parties forming NARC that comprised of 59.9 % of the vote with a total count of 121 MP's , Kanu was next with 30.2 % with 61 MP's,Nyachaes Ford -P had 14 seats at roughly 6.9 % ,other parties Shirikisho 2,Safina 2 ,SISI kwa SISI 1 and Ford A 1. Of the 61 MP's from KANU a good lot from Kiambu soon quietly merged with the Government ,so did Ford-P MP's . Many of these leaders did not lose their seats simply because of a loophole in Parliamentary rules . It permits you to retain your seat even if you defect to a different party , as long as you do not send the Speaker of the house written notification. Rest assured if Kibaki loses, many MP's from the coalition PNU , will soon join the winning team leaving a none effective opposition. ODM leaders have learnt the lesson of coalitions ,and that is why even while allowing other party members to support them . They are encouraging direct party membership as opposed to corporate membership . The advantages are obvious,theres less wheeling and dealing ,less negotiations ,less blackmail . Lastly hopefully no controversial MOU (Memorandum Of Understanding) , I don't think anyone wants to deal with that 'song' anymore.

At any rate whatever personal choices Kibaki makes, if he loses,he will be affecting the lives of many. The Presidency comes with much more clout, security and State machinery than what we think about. As President you singlehandedly have direct access to appointments of hundreds of people ranging from the Diplomatic corp,Civil Service to State corporations. This means that while the President himself contemplates his next move, there are many others who should worry about the implications of a Kibaki loss.

Also a Kibaki loss would set a unique precedent for the nation of Kenya. It will be the first time a sitting President has lost an election. Remember Moi retired and was not eligible to contest the 2002 election. So while we have had an experience of accomodating a retired President it will be interesting to watch how society would incorporate an Ex-President ,especially if he retains his seat and chooses to stay on as Leader of The Official opposition.