From: john mbote

WHY MUDAVADI SHOULD VOTE FOR KIBAKI

Everybody especially those with ambitions to climb the highest office, including Mudavadi should reelect Kibaki for the reasons outlined below;
 
If reelected we are assured of a vacancy come year 2012. Everybody then will have an equal chance though in a very crowded race to state house. Kibaki is unlikely to have a successor and thus everyone will have an equal opportunity. We must acknowledge that PNU has a lot of heavyweight politician such as Kombo, Kirwa, Saitoti, Uhuru, Mwakwere, Kituyi , the late entrant Reverend Mutava Musyimi (whom I believe will be quite a force to reckon with) among others. Kalonzo on the other hand will also be in the race. We cannot rule out Ngilu though her come back is likely to be that of someone’s running mate.
 
PNU fallout is likely to arise after Kibaki appoint his VP, the leading contenders here being Kombo and Kirwa. The other heavy weights will feel cheated since the VP post will give a mileage to whoever takes it come year 2012. However if Awori retain the post then its likely that the PNU government will be a united one, few have hopes that Awori will be in the race in 2012 thus everybody else will have equal opportunity.
 
Kibaki is the candidate who is likely to implement a new constitution. This is due to the fact that he will have no interest in the presidency after 2012 and neither will there be an opportunity for a kikuyu to take over after 2012, the best Uhuru can expect is to be somebody’s running mate.
 
Kibaki has taken the presidency with a lot of power luckily he has not misused it.
 
What will Raila presidency entail?
 
Raila will takeovers the presidency with the current massive power. Note the current begging by Raila to Kibaki that the latter assure the public that he will hand over if he is defeated. The clamor for minimum reforms is gone due to the high confidence on the ODM side of their takeover.
 
If Raila wins will he hand over that power by enacting the Bomas draft within six months as promised? Have the faithful luo’s followers been waiting for the seat for all those years only to get a shell out of it? Luos are a reasonably big tribe and their reasoning might be “Moi, read Kalenjins ruled for 24 years, Kenyatta, aka Kikuyu ruled for 14 years and now it’s our turn, we tried to snatch it in 1982 without success, we now have it democratically, we will not let it go! Luckily for Raila he is likely to have a very royal and submissive VP and cabinet. In the cabinet were almost assured having Joseph Nyanga most likely as an ODM nominated MP.
 
 
My opinion is that Raila will not implement the Bomas draft nor Majimbo, furthermore it is not his role to do it. Remember the famous Moi quote “when you are wooing a lady you promise her heaven but once she enter the house ……..” Raila is likely to make the presidency more powerful or even misuse the current power. His fear that Kibaki might refuse to hand over I believe is after his soul searching “were I in the same position would I let it go?”
 
In the short time Raila became a minister in Moi government he incited the tenant not to pay rent; this resulted in several deaths at Mathare north. In Kibaki government he demolished houses on the pretext of building by pass. As a president no one can predict what he will do hence the talks by Moi about stability of the country.
 
Nobody will unseat Raila in 2012, the famous “state machinery” being at his disposal. Come 2017 I am of the opinion that Raila might by then implement the by then forgotten Bomas draft to make a comeback as an executive Prime Minister or he might even change the constitution to become a life president or better still refuse to hand over after 2017 elections!
 
Which way for Kalonzo and Mudavadi?
 
Kalonzo must stick with his ODM-K outfit but ensure whatever way Kibaki wins. He should proudly be in the opposition to a Kibaki government. This will give him a lot of mileage come 2012 and giants will be fighting to become his running mate especially Uhuru and ironically Mudavadi. All the same Kalonzo candidacy is making more harm to Kibaki than Raila, in his absence his followers are likely to vote for Kibaki. Should it become apparent that Kibaki is losing to ODM, he should switch his support to Kibaki to give himself another fighting chance just after 5 years.
 
Anyway its wishful thinking that Mudavadi would vote for Kibaki.
Mudavadi is Raila designate VP. He is likely to become a very loyal and satisfied Raila VP, having been hand picked from the streets (not parliament) by Raila. If Raila is to become a life president then that is not his worry. The loser in this arrangement will be the Luhya community who are banking on Mudavadi to take over after Raila, they currently have Awori as a VP in highly delegated environment. Mudavadi will be a VP in an environment where the president overshadows everyone else; he is likely to have a very long, long wait before making a stab at the presidency after Raila. Furthermore “Raila is implementing the Bomas draft” will Mudavadi be waiting for the ceremonial presidency?
 
Why the Raila phobia?
 
Raila is quite unpredictable, he unceremoniously left the opposition to join the then oppressive and corrupt Moi’s government. Then leaving it in a huff once Moi chose Uhuru as his successor. Recall his battle with the late Wamalwa in FORD’s power wrangles, and the recent battles with Kalonzo over control of ODM. Is there any other description for this other than being power hungry?