Sang - - sang2000@ . . .  wrote:
            From the grapevines of Nairobi.
  Read on......
 
Things take a Turn

In the last 2 weeks, things in the political Kenya have taken a decisive turn. We have been talking about this change every day prior to the poll and so the new result of yesterday showing Raila leading came as no surprise at all.

6 months ago, conventional wisdom had it that Raila was financing, organizing and running a brilliant campaign but that Kenyans with their tribal nature would never take a Luo seriously and vote him for Prez. That was 6 months ago.

Raila for his part has really gotten his act together. I think he is benefiting greatly from a team of sharp advisors. And he's gotten that team together because he is not averse to spending money, something all too common in tough Africa .

From the big billboard in Nairobi west that announces "The Peoples President" to that famous Hummer to his confident pronouncements of what he would do as president, Railas steps and work are finally bearing fruit 6 months on. On his part Kalonzo's cautious approach and seeming unsure stance have left him almost irrelevant at this point. I sit on his committee and vocalized repeatedly the prediction that if he didn't shake things up, he would be boxed in and corner and obscured by Raila. Its exactly what has happened to the dismay of many.

I actually thought that the relection of Prez Kibaki was a given. I personally feel the direction in which the country is going right now is generally a good direction. Economic growth, vibrant business, infrastructure and local services improvement and on going "work". But the prez has a lot of problems, and I mean a lot.

Here they are:

1. I probably like Kenya much now because am in business as are most of my ilk. But Kenya is not us. Kenya is not young guys donning shades and driving Mercedes cars. Kenya is many many folks in Kawangware and Riruta and Uthiru who cant believe the small Omo has gone from 42/= to 76. They are angry that blue band is no longer 38/= but is now about 80/=

2. The problems for Kibaki mestatized apparently on May 1. At the labour day celebrations in Uhuru Park , he made no mention of hiking the minimum wage. The year before, he had increased it by 10%. For judges however their pay was increased by 300% and every one in Kenya saw and knows that. Apparently the workers had expected a raise anywhere from 50 to 100%. They got zero. After the occasion was over, the prez got up to leave and while Raila tried to leave he was mobbed by the crowd, escorted to Serena hotel and forced to address the crowd. He swiftly promised to serve a better package should he be in office, that caters to the lower cadre.the message was received loud and clear.

3. Kibaki's calm and congenial stance is causing the perception of a wide leadership vacuum. From clashes and loss of life in Mt Elgon, to Mungiki to Nyachae's actions the other day, Kenyans await an authoritative voice from the head of state but instead are met by a resounding silence. As one guy said, vitu inafanyika nchi inachomeka na mzee anaangalia tu chini. It makes Kibaki and his ilk look really old and tired and out of touch.

4. The cabal around the prez unfortunately is comprised of really unpopular and lack luster leaders. They are costing him a lot of votes. From Mungatana, to Martha Karua to uncle Moody to Mr Mwiraria and Kiraitu all these guys have carried crosses and are very unpopular and many are very disliked. They are not the popular, young turks in touch with mwananchi that the prez needs. They are constantly bickering, angry accused of Anglo leasing and this and that and most are reputed to have come in on the Narc wave and not on merit. Some have been reinstated in the cabinet thus making it impossible to break with the past. The prez crew is hurting not helping.

5. PNU, the Prez new party has started off so badly, without direction, without cohesion and without a mantra, that Kenyans have called it Party of No Use. Of course some call it PANU but that is so close to KANU..doesnt help either. KANU is tainted, represents the repressive regime of old, that was bankrupt of ideas and bankrupted Kenya and whose spineless leader Uhuru just joined the Guiness Book of World Records as the first leader to throw in the towel so soon.

6. Support from Prez Moi. The proverbial kiss of death. Because of the former prez development record or lack thereof, any body he chooses is automatically rejected by the electorate. That was the fate of Uhuru in '02. And probably that of Kibaki in '07. The former prez is liked as a person, his pronouncement usually are entertaining, but the reputation of looting in this country under his watch, the inability to create jobs and a negative growth economy are not forgotten. As such Moi is the last guy you want campaigning for you.

7. Unlike ODM which has imported 10 helicopters and many brand new SUVs, (apparently SK has donated 47 units to Raila) Prez Kibaki a conservative and modest individual has not authorized spending large chunks of money and doing big things. Its just not his cup of tea. Meanwhile Raila is going around raising millions of dollars and soliciting the help of US and Europe and apparently even Obama is on board. Last week ODM collected 100 Million shillings in one day.

8. Most Kenyans don't differentiate the difference between Parliament and the President. So as MPs have hiked their own salaries, it looks to the grassroot voter that MPs have rewareded themselves with Boss Kibaki's consent without a care for raising the pay of the little man by even a hundred shillings. Thus this august house is very unpopular and predicted 90% occupants will be cleaned out.

So those are some of the Presidents problems. And the culmination of it was Nyachaes barbaric behaviour over the weekend. Analysts say that right there cost the prez a good half a million votes. Ofcourse the govt in panic mode has started making dumb mistakes. Such as canceling the ODM rally scheduled for this weekend without cause. And Raila in wisdom comes out this morning and says they will reschedule because doing the rally by force will cause loss of life and an ugly scene which ODM is not about that kind of crap. Great PR wont you agree?

So the ODM electricity of Referendum 2005 is flowing, unless something changes the momentum certainly is on Raila's side. And ofcourse there is a lot of the sympathy vote after Ruto was attacked at Nyachae's meeting. Sympathy for Ruto is calculated to bring the Rift Valley vote, while running mate Mudavadi is to bring the Western vote, Balala seems locked in with delivering the Coast vote to ODM and ofcrouse Nairobi is leaning hard ODM and away from PNU. Kibaki on his part is sure to lock in Central Kenya vote but that's probably all. Overwhelming evidence also suggest Kenyans psychologically are done with the era of Old Men, from Nyachae to Moody to Kibaki, Kenyans want a young guy who can think fast and type an email and send an SMS.

But two months in politics is like a life time. Things could change, but right now Kalonzo is chini kabisa and almost out of the game, Kibaki's team appears confused and without clear strategy and all the momentum is on Raila and growing by the day. Lets watch and see.

-b.

BREAKING NEWS

Steadman has just released a NATIONWIDE poll in the last few hours, it has Raila leading at 49%, Kibaki 37% and Musyoka 8%. Also Raila's ODM is overwhelmingly the most popular party in Kenya, enjoying a 59% majority.