This may sound scary.....but dont be scared

From: George obare

Thursday, 1st November, 2007
       
JERRY OKUNGU

An East african perspective

The rumour is rampant. The cat is out of the bag, at least according to Minister Katuku of the Water Department.

Yes, Mr. Raila Odinga may be riding high in opinion polls and may even win the popular and provincial votes in the coming elections.

However, PNU strategists like Katuku have put a masterplan in place to ensure Raila loses Langata seat to a man called Livondo. If this happens, Raila will have lost the presidency on a technicality.

Katuku is so sure the plan is watertight and that there is nothing Raila Odinga or ODM for that matter, can do about it. In some quarters, this is called "advanced" rigging.

Flash back to 2002, one Mrs. Njoroge of Ngumo Estate within the larger Langata Constituency raised her hand at Raila's rally in Kibera. She told Raila not to waste his time campaigning in Langata because all the votes in Langata were his! She advised him to spend his energies campaigning for Kibaki and Narc in other parts of the country.

True his word, Raila Odinga obeyed Mrs. Njoroge, who spoke for thousands of Langata residents. He never held another rally in Langata. On Election Day, Raila Odinga fulfilled Mrs. Njoroge's prophecy. He romped home with a landslide while bagging victory for Kibaki and Narc nationally.

Now picture this. In December 2007, elections are held and Raila receives 52 or 58 percent of the popular vote. He also leads in at least six of the eight provinces but loses Langata seat to Livondo. However, Mwai Kibaki comes second to Raila Odinga with at least 25% of the votes in the same six provinces; ranks second to Raila in popular votes and wins the Othaya seat! Who becomes the President of Kenya? Is it Mwai Kibaki or Raila Odinga?

Right now there are 14 million voters registered in Kenya . Assuming that the voter turn- out would be 100%. Raila Odinga's popular votes estimated at 58% would be 8.1 million while Mwai Kibaki's popular vote at 38% would be 5.3 million.

Now if Kibaki wins the presidency on the grounds that Raila Odinga loses his Langata seat, the decision would pit 8.1 million Kenyans against 5.3 million who will be taking the presidency home. The question to ask is this; will 8.1 million Kenyans take this fraud lying down? I call it fraud because Katuku was generous enough to tell Kenyans in advance that the Langata seat was already decided by the regime in power. Which brings me to my next point; suppose Katuku is right that the Langata seat has already been decided; then why waste Kenyans' time going to the ballot box on that day?

Without knowing it, Katuku and his co-planners have done Kenyans a favour. They have forewarned Kenyans of the chaos that will follow the elections.

If Raila Odinga loses Langata and the presidency in the fashion executed by PNU strategists, Kenyans must prepare to see their beloved country going up in smoke because burn indeed the country will.

As I write this article, I strongly believe that President Kibaki's administration will not allow this recklessness to go on. I trust President Kibaki's judgment. I don't think he is even aware that his ministers are planning to plunge Kenya into an unnecessary civil strife! If he does, then he too together with his handlers will surely be consumed by the inferno that will spare none of us, something Kenyans don't want to happen.

If anybody doubts me, he should ask El Bashir and several African leaders who have attempted this game in the past. In this scenario, there will be two types of losers; the poor who have nothing to lose except their misery and the rich and powerful who will have everything to lose.

And let me say another thing; the world has become a global village. The days when rulers used to loot treasuries and escape in private jets to foreign lands in times of crises are long gone. As it is, the campaigns are going on smoothly with a few messes here and there in Nairobi and Mt. Kenya area; which is understandable.

President Kibaki has truly taken charge of his campaign and so have Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka and Pastor Muiru. Let these people meet at the ballot and may the best man win. We therefore do not need and cannot allow bad losers for whom winning is a life and death situation to mess up our country.

Elections come and go but Kenya will always be there for us. It is my prayer that President Kibaki will not allow this unfortunate situation to happen to our beautiful country.