11/27/2007
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re: A MUST READ- ADULTERATED,ABUSED STEADMAN SHAMEFULL POLL
From: Ken Nyamolo
For sure Guyz these things have been adultered...from my simple knowledge
of statistical inferences...take the figures as put on the front page of
saturday nation by the 4 pollsters.
By Inspection
1)Raila's
figures of 44.2;41.5;44.2;43.6 has some elements of consistency
2)Kibaki's
figures of 36.1;39.5;36.1;43.3 has the last figure as an anomaly
3)Kalonzo's
figures of 17.9;15.9;17.9;11.4 has the last figure as an anomaly
Line of best fit
Each
of these plotted for line of best fit,kibaki's 43.3 and kalonzo 11.4 would
be far away from the line or simply put they are outliers that cannot be
taken in decision making..Railas points would be close to the line and that
is simple statistics
Again
how can you lead in six provinces and still have a margin of .3% even if
the two provinces have 100% voters for Kibaki which is not the case.
The
simple average of the four polls would put:
Raila-44%
Kibaki-38%
Kalonzo-15%
others
&undecided-3% which could be true given the disquite in the just ended
nominations
So
Steadman waache upuzi....
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