Kenyan and Australian Elections

From:  Peter Okelo

I have been following the elections in Kenya and those in Australia and there are some very interesting resemblances between the elections in both countries even though they may seem to be literally poles apart with Australia located toward the South Pole while Kenya lies comfortably on the Equator.

In both cases the opposition is leading by 50+ %. Don’t be cheated, that is the margin of victory; statistics don’t lie even though you can lie with and manipulate statistics.

50%+ section of the Australian population expect a victory for the opposition in Australia on Saturday the 24th of November 2007.

50%+ section of the Kenyan population expect a victory for the opposition in Kenya on Thursday the 27th of December 2007.

It would be statistical blindness to think that ODM (Orange Democratic Party) will not win the elections in Kenya on the 27th of December 2007. Perhaps Kenyans should to start getting used to “His Excellency Raila Odinga”.

In Australia the general feeling is that people are tired of a government that seems to have been doing the same things for 11 years. Yes, 11 years…

In Kenya many feel that Hon Mwai Kibaki may have been president for 5 years but the distinction between the current government and the previous 24-year-old Moi regime is blurred by what is perceived as lack of action on popularly and nationally supported goals which many feel have not been fulfilled.

Thus the perception of continuity of features of the old Kenyan regime. Association with the retired former president Danielle Arap Moi has not been very helpful for Hon Mwai Kibaki’s government either.

In both cases the opposition leaders, namely Hon Raila Amolo Odinga (Tinga) and Kevin Rudd (Kevin 07), have garnered support for their opposition parties in a relatively short time. Remember the recent days polls used to place Hon Odinga at 8%?

In both countries there seems to be dissatisfaction with the government’s claim about national economic prosperity. The government is encouraging the people of Australia to “Go for Growth” as its campaigning slogan while those in support of the Kibaki regime regularly drum the same beat about economic growth which many Kenyans seem to find rather elusive.

Many in Australia feel that there may be prosperity but the cost of housing and other pressing material and economic matters seem to diminish any semblance of prosperity that the government is campaigning on.

In Kenya the incumbent government is encouraging people that “Kazi Iendelee” (“Work to continue”) though what an indispensable section of the Kenyan population (50+ %) seem to want is a change of government not for the government to continue with the same “work” (Kazi). Some Kenyans are probably asking themselves, “Kazi gani?” (“Which work?”)

“Kazi iendelee” also has the direct connotation of “As usual”… a kind of comfortable complacency. That comfortable disposition is all fine if you eat and sleep well, and wash well too…and drink clean water, and drive on smooth roads…in a four-wheel drive…

In both cases the government seems to have put up a rather ugly smear campaign against the opposition with the government of Australia now under fire for distributed leaflets deliberately and falsely linking the opposition to partiality toward Muslims. Remember those ‘Muslims’ are Australians, well one would presume so.

In Kenya the opposition is accused of signing a memorandum of understanding with Kenyan Muslims.

In Australia there is a very high expectation of a change of government among an overwhelming section of the population (50%+) on Saturday the 24th of November. While there is also a rather desperate cling to hope of survival on the part of the Liberal government under Prime Minister John Howard. But merely hope of survival, not outright victory.

In Kenya Hon Kibaki is still clinging on hope of victory. The Kenyan president has promised to do just one more round, “Mara ingine tena” (“Just one more time”).

But many Kenyans must be asking, “Tena kweli?” (“Once again really?”)

In Kenya the ballot will speak on the 27th of December 2007. And as one of the presidential candidates, Pastor Pius Muiru (Kenya People’s Party), said in a TV interview on the 23rd of October, Kenya could be heading for a very positive earth quake. No, I don’t think the good pastor will be elected president, but Kenya will positively change.

Please don’t forget to vote whether you live in the South Pole or on the Equator.

Every piece of freedom has a badge of sacrifice.

Peter Okelo teaches Language and Communication