Raila still leads in the latest November polls , SUNDAY NATION Writer; sent by nyaware

New polls show mixed fortunes for candidates

Sun, November 04, 2007

By SUNDAY NATION Writer

Sun, Nov 04, 2007 00:17 AM (EAT)
The opinion polls were a mixed bag again this week. One showed President Kibaki of the Party of National Unity (PNU) and ODM's Raila Odinga in a statistical dead heat in one extreme. Another gave Mr Odinga a 19-point lead in the other extreme.

But the familiar pattern is repeated with Mr Odinga leading, followed by President Kibaki with ODM-K's Mr Kalonzo Musyoka third.

The percentage margins are 51-32-12 (Infotrak Harris), 50-35-14 (Strategic Public Relations and Research) and 41-40-14 (Consumer Insight).

The one per cent margin between the President and Mr Odinga registered by Consumer Insight is the tightest margin recorded in any poll since the surveys began six weeks ago.

Another consistent pattern is the very wide disparities between the findings of Strategic Research and Infotrak Harris on the one hand, and those of Consumer Insight on the other.

This is curious, considering the sampling indicated by all three pollsters is not very dissimilar.

The 19-point difference between Mr Odinga and Mr Kibaki polled by Infotrak Harris and the one percentage point recorded by Consumer Insight is strangely wide, given that all pollsters were asking the same question.

Equally interesting disparities are registered in the findings from various districts registered by Strategic Research and Consumer Insight.

For instance, according to Consumer Insight, Mr Odinga's numbers are insignificant in West Pokot, yet he scores quite highly in other districts of the Rift Valley.

What is also not quite clear is why Mr Odinga would underperform in Kericho District with 42 per cent yet suddenly overwhelm everybody else with 92 per cent in the neighbouring Bureti, which is demographically similar to the other district.

In another Meru Central District, Infotrak Harris reports that President Kibaki had the support of slightly over half (52 per cent) of those interviewed, followed by Mr Odinga (32 per cent) and Mr Musyoka (13 per cent) with three per cent yet to make up their minds on whom they would back.

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POLLSTER	R. ODINGA	M. KIBAKI	K. MUSYOKA
Strategic PR	50	35	14
InfoTrak	51.3	32.2	12.8
Consumer Insight	41	40.6	14.3
Â· Click on table to download full reports of the three opinion polls

Same district

Having polled the same district, Consumer Insight reports that 94 per cent of those it interviewed supported President Kibaki, four per cent backed Mr Odinga and two per cent supported Mr Musyoka. None was undecided.

The overall trend is that there are no radical shifts. The exception is with the Consumer Insight poll, where the gap has closed dramatically. Otherwise the other two polls don't indicate any significant improvement in President Kibaki's fortunes, or that of Mr Musyoka.

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