From: Edward Omolo, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Biology
Harrisburg Area Community College
Harrisburg, PA 17110
717-780-1134

Two weeks to Kenya's vote, opposition holds lead

Fri 14 Dec 2007, 11:54 GMT
By Andrew Cawthorne

NAIROBI (Reuters) - A flamboyant former political prisoner held the lead over Kenya's president in three opinion polls published on Friday less than two weeks before a national election in east Africa's largest economy.

The surveys gave opposition candidate Raila Odinga a range of 42.8 to 46 percent against President Mwai Kibaki's 35.9 to 40.8 in what some have forecast to be the closest vote in Kenya's history since independence from Britain in 1963.

But with two of the three new surveys showing Odinga, 62, roughly ten percentage points ahead of Kibaki, 76, it was clear which side was scenting victory.

"I think the polls are right. Raila is ahead, and his support is solid," said one foreign diplomat. "Privately, (Kibaki's) State House reckons they are going to lose."

In public, Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Kibaki's Party of National Unity (PNU) -- both coalitions of smaller parties with little definable ideology -- proclaim they are on course for victory.

Kibaki is hoping his economic record -- growth has averaged five percent annually since he took over in 2002 -- and popular measures like free primary education will convince Kenya's 14 million voters to give him a second five- year term.

But Odinga supporters say the president has favoured his Kikuyu tribe, at the expense of other more marginalised communities, and done little to combat endemic corruption.

Despite being a wealthy businessman and former minister in Kibaki's government, Odinga has sought to present himself as a champion of the poor, and has garnered support beyond his western Luo tribe to lead polls in six of Kenya's eight regions.

CLOSE VOTE

Analysts fear a close vote may raise the possibility of violence and fraud, particularly in remote areas where foreign election observers will not be watching.

Some 15,000 local observers will, however, be able to keep watch on almost every constituency, from Kenya's steamy Indian Ocean coast, to its highlands and Maasai plains.

Though free of the wars that have devastated many of its neighbours, Kenya does have a history of violence around election time. This year's campaign has been no exception, with several deaths at rallies that have turned into riots.

There have also been allegations of fraud, including vote-buying and inflated registration lists.

The Strategic Research and Infotrak Harris polls published on Friday gave Odinga a large margin -- of ten percentage points -- that will delight ODM strategists who had braced for a PNU comeback due to heavy spending in recent days.

Consumer Insight, however, put the opposition leader just two points ahead, cheering Kibaki supporters who rubbish the polls and say their man's slogan "Kazi Iendelee" ("The Work Continues") is gradually convincing Kenyans to stick with him.

Measured and non-confrontational in public, Kibaki contrasts in style with the more voluble Odinga, who spent eight years in jail for dissidence, including supporting a failed coup attempt, under former President Daniel arap Moi.

But on major policy substance, the pair differ little.

Both vow to build on economic growth to turn Kenya into an "African Tiger", tackle poverty in a nation where half of the 36 million people live on less than a dollar a day, and make secondary education free too