From: Nicholas Mireri

Raila defies PNU calculations

By Egara Kabaji

SEVEN months ago, it was the assumption of those in government that Raila Odinga was unelectable. The opinion polls before the split of ODM (Orange Democratic Movement) into the two factions of ODM and ODM-Kenya did not help either. President Mwai Kibaki topped the polls followed by Kalonzo Musyoka.

Raila Odinga always came third followed by Musalia Mudavadi and William Ruto respectively.

Controlled by the prejudice that Kenyans would not vote for Raila Odinga and that his election bid would be the easiest to trash, supporters of President Mwai Kibaki are said to have quietly encouraged a split in ODM-K and Raila’s bid to win the ODM primaries. The assumption was that it was easy to beat Raila Odinga than Kalonzo Musyoka or Musalia Mudavadi. It was, therefore, not surprising that in the ODM primaries Raila garnered more votes than his opponents from Kibaki’s central Kenya stronghold where ODM had little support.

The game plan has so far backfired. The entire arsenal reserved to undermine Raila’s presidential bid have, for all intent and purpose, failed. The more the obsession and schizophrenic attacks on Raila from the PNU (Party of National Unity) command post, the more his popularity has soared since September. The character attack adverts, the most offensive PNU arsenal, have had the negative effect of depicting the government as desperate and panicking. The ODM’s more confident mien has the electorate more spellbound.

In many ways, the enigmatic Raila has defied all the PNU propaganda and his popularity continues to rise throughout the country. In central Kenya, a quiet but purposeful mood is building towards him. If the opinion polls are anything to go by, he has gained most in “enemy” territory while his opponents continue to slide in his strongholds. More scaring for other presidential candidates is that his percentage has stabilized at a difference of 10% and the number of undecided voters seems to be negligible. Indeed as the Infotrack Harris pollsters reveal 90% voters have made up their minds. This means that two weeks to elections, voters are in no doubt whom they want to be the fourth president of the Republic.

What happened is not a miracle but miraculous miscalculations by President Mwai Kibaki’s handlers. First, Kibaki’s strategists erroneously thought they would sell the idea of the foreskin to scatter Raila’s bid. The move backfired because modern Kenyan considered this an obscenity and of no consequence to the governance of the nation.

This is a big lesson to retrogressive anthropologists passing as political strategists. One should never use tricks of yester year’s ethnic prejudice as incitement in convincing the modern voter. It is turning out that Kenyans have called the bluff on this ethnic slur because they bought into the bigger ODM platform theme-issue e of change.

Kenyans are concerned more with how they can put food on the table and this means equitable distribution of resources. That is why when PNU tries to sell the ‘development politics’ of the president dishing out goodies like a monarch looks more and more ridiculous and stands as a symbol of past era. Put bluntly, PNU peddlers of this idea appear as a sad relic headed for the political museum. The voter mood currently is of one of closure to a faded past and welcome to a new dawn. In this respect and to many, Odinga stands as an icon of generational transfer; a refreshing agent of change and a living symbol as a bridge in the practice of politics in Kenya.

Secondly Raila was considered unelectable because of the assumption that once labelled ‘dangerous’ the compliant Kenyan voter would be scared. It was the assignment a pliant Musikari Kombo was given to shout about during the launch of PNU. The belief has been so strong among Kibaki’s handlers that they did not consider how obvious the ‘one dangerous man’ statement would become infamous. Such venom to the ‘pliable’ voter would haunt PNU as divisive and vengeful.

Conversely, given the voter dissent against the incumbent little did PNU strategists realize that the tag ‘dangerous’ is positive in many respects to majority of voters. With it, comes the thought of a person who is daring and intrepid, courageous, bold, indefatigable, gallant and fearless. Kibaki had let them down on these attributes. With the spirit of change blowing throughout the country, Raila became the hero that many voters think will transform this society.

In branding Raila and his ODM party ‘dangerous’, a binary, but interesting relationship has developed between Kenyans and ODM and PNU. One is either dangerously in need of change or one has accepted the status quo. The voting pattern will therefore reflect those who want change and those who are satisfied with the status quo. Majority of voters are gravitating towards the dangerous corner where ODM is daring and PNU is dithering on change. The mood of change has therefore made it possible for Kenyans to see Raila as the man of the moment, ‘dangerous’ enough to overhaul a system that they consider rotten.

In the thinking of many PNU operatives, Raila Odinga would make verbal blunders that would cost him the presidency. All through, the PNU operatives have always associated him with loose talk hence the ‘Domo’ advert. But so far, this has not happened. It is because PNU did not reckon with the plethora of highly savvy, motivated and committed advisers that Raila put together from Mudavadi’s, Ruto’s and Balala’s secretariats. Throughout the ODM primaries, these backroom had competed against Raila, had come to learn and appreciate the candidate, and all they needed was to sharpen his strengths and blunt the edges. The opposite obtains in PNU, technical advisers hardly know their candidate. For lack of a campaign strategy based on the candidate, PNU resorted to panic attack adverts demonise ODM. This tactic simply boomerangs when ODM plays semantics with their “Domo Domo’ Advert.

But perhaps one other thing that has made Raila to remain ahead has been the uncoordinated PNU campaigns. Besides, many of those supporting president Mwai Kibaki do not command any respect outside their small fiefdoms. Some have problems even in those areas they consider their strongholds. In Western Province, where I come from, many Kibaki activists are those who cannot dare call a meeting at Muliro Gardens in Kakamega. These gardens are the barometer of Western Province politics. To get a friendly audience, these activists have to pay a very high listening fee. The infighting of PNU activists, especially in other regions other than central Kenya has had serious implications to Kibaki’s bid.

In whichever way you want to look at politics, sometimes fate plays a role. Raila Odinga happens to stand at the right place at the right time. The mood of change is sweeping through the entire republic. Kenyans want a fundamental change in the way things are done. You may call it a new constitutional order in which you do not need to have one of your own in a position of leadership to get your share of the national cake. Raila Odinga, at the moment, seems to be the one many Kenyans see as embodying the spirit to carry out the necessary reforms. Whether he has the capacity to deliver this change when he finally gets there is a matter rarely entertained.

Raila Odinga’s organizational skills and his propaganda machinery have worked well. On the other hand, President Kibaki’s PNU has not managed to build a strong case for the president. Their utterances have, in many ways, intensified what Phillip Ochieng calls ‘Kikuyu Phobia’ among other Kenyans. Selling Kibaki’s development record and not trying to change perceptions has not helped. Uhuru Kenyatta’s action of supporting Kibaki has not necessarily been a plus but a minus. It has, at best, painted Uhuru as an ethnic bigot. Unfortunately what started at referendum when Kenya was balkanized into two main blocks has persisted.

Propaganda aside, perhaps it is necessary to note that what Raila Odinga is proposing to do with devolution, may not, after all, be a very bad idea even to PNU supporters. The fact that every region can get its share of resources even when one of their own is not the occupant of the House on the Hill is attractive.

Egara Kabaji is a Senior Lecturer at Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology. egarakabaji at yahoo dot com