Election Analysis - Part I

From: George Atsiaya

This year's general elections in Kenya seem to draw many firsts. Amongst them, the first time that an incumbent faces stiff opposition. This is also the first time ever that propangandists have been born in many numbers. The media houses have also reaped lots of monies from advertisements both in print and audio/visual.

If Kibaki loses this election, he will be the first incumbent in Africa to do so. And with the state resources at his disposal to disuse and misuse, it would be a bitter pill for him to swallow. His campaign machinery, though churning out information on a daily basis, seems frail. The propagandists miscalculated the damage that anti-Raila leaflets would do to Kibaki's re-election campaign. Furthermore, there seems to be rivalry amongst the many lobby groups that campaign in his name. Kibaki's failure to clearly state who his running mate is, though not legally binding in Kenya, is causing disquiet in the different camps. The vice-president Awori has no political clout in the western region - infact, he faces stiff opposition in his backyard to regain his parliamentary seat. Many hope that he loses his bid to recapture his seat so that that locks him out of the vice-presidency next year (even if nominated to parliament).

Raila's campaign machinery, though well oiled and coordinated, has spent much of its post-nomination time trying to do damage control. The nomination process having been flawed, lowered the party's poll ratings. Raila has dropped in poll ratings as the other two contenders rise. Even though the credibility of the leading pollster, Steadman, has been put to question (read last Sunday's Standard newspaper page 18), it is true that Raila's opponents have made small gains. Having spent much time fighting propaganda, Raila and his team , have not been able to sell their policies and/or manifesto to the people. They will, hopefully, do this in coming days as they draw closer to the election day.

Raila may win this election if his strategists, who must have scratched their heads bald in the past fortnight, get their act well. They may be waiting for the right time to strike. Raila started his campaigns early, thanks to the expanded democratic space, and him and his team must be suffering from a burn out.

Kalonzo's chances, though slim, are increasing. If he continued to campaign like this for the next five years, he will win the 2012 elections. He wants to have his bargaining power in the tenth parliament (and sure he will have it).

The claims that plans by the government side to rig the elections have resonated in KIbaki's two main contenders' camps. These claims may hold some substance in them. Theses claims are also carried in this week's Citizen newspaper. (Even though many think that this paper belongs to the gutter press, it gives some of the accurate stories and/or gossips in the past and current regimes.)

I, pray that the elections be peaceful, free and fair.

God bless Kenya.