Reform is route to national stability -

http://www.eastandard.net/news/?id=1143979189

Published on December 20, 2007, 12:00 am

By John Githongo

Two days after Christmas, Kenyans will vote in a General Election that will shape more than just the future of Kenya itself. A stable Kenya helps hold together a rough neighbourhood that includes Sudan and Somalia. A prosperous, globalised Kenya, where the spread of mobile telephones has spawned a new generation of entrepreneurs, should be an example for the region. Kenya is where a million tourists a year form their impressions of the continent of Africa.

The intensity of the election could not have been foreseen at the beginning of the year, when President Kibaki's patchy coalition seemed to be heading for certain victory. Robust economic growth, a booming stock exchange and urban housing sector as well as burgeoning tourism and the advent of free primary education were among their claimed achievements.

It helped that the opposing coalition of Raila Odinga, Mr Kibaki's main rival for the presidency, was splitting.

But instead of a clear run to a second presidential term, Mr Kibaki's campaign has foundered. Most of the country, outside the Central Province and Eastern Province, has thrown support behind Raila.

What caused this realignment?

Kenya's post-colonial constitution vests inordinate political power in the presidency. Kibaki has defended this status quo with enthusiasm despite promising a revised constitution after the 2002 General Election. First-past-the-post electoral system hands these powers to the victor and, in the imagination of most Kenyans, to his ethnic group, in Kibaki's case Kenya's largest, comprising up to 25 per cent of the population. Many believe that this occurs to the exclusion of the other four large ethnic groupings that make up close to 60 per cent of the population, as well as to Kenya's 52 smaller groupings. Even if the country as a whole develops; the ethnic group of the president can expect to "develop" exponentially. While donors and the middle class crow about abstract economic growth statistics, ordinary people ask: for whom is the economy growing?

The "growth" that should have won the Government broad popularity has instead led to cynicism and envy along ethnic lines.

Corruption, accompanied by the conspicuous consumption of a ruling elite perceived to be from one part of the country, has intensified suspicions.

Recent rapid economic growth has meant precious little to the masses. It is government spending associated with that growth that the average Kenyan should see, feel and touch. That has flowed at only a modest trickle. Kikuyus counter that a natural penchant for industry and capital accumulation puts them at the heart of the economy.

These realities will inform choices at the ballot box. The campaign has been accompanied by ferocious mobilisation along ethnic lines. To hard-line members of the ruling elite, Raila has become the sum of their historical fears: He is also seen as a populist, who talks of equitable distribution of national resources.

To Raila's hard line supporters, Kibaki and his lieutenants exemplify arrogance and greed.

Whatever the outcome, little will change without comprehensive constitutional reform and a credible anti-corruption programme. Better management of presidential powers will be crucial to national stability.

The writer is former Permanent Secretary in charge of Governance and Ethics. Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007.


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Joram Ragem
wuod Ndinya, wuod Onam, wuod Amolo, wuod Owuoth, wuod Oganyo, wuod Mumbe, wuod Odongo, wuod Olwande, wuod Adhaya, wuod Ojuodhi, woud Ragem! ( Are you my relative?)