Why Raila should promise to concede when he loses

As the debate on why Raila Odinga should concede when he loses the election heats up, we need to restudy the lessons from past elections in Africa.

Those who have been following the war in Congo DRC will know one Jean-Pierre Bemba. Bemba is a rebel leader causing trouble in Eastern Congo. He is married to Liliane Teixeira. Liliane is the daughter of Antonio “Tony” Texeira the CEO of Energem Resources. The company owns 55% shares in the Kisumu Molasses plant.

Jean-Pierre Bemba With his family

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6085536.stm
http://zmagsite.zmag.org/June2007/snow0607.html
http://zmagsite.zmag.org/JulAug2007/snow_print.html

The war in Congo is fueled by her mineral and oil riches. Foreign companies interested in cheap minerals have heavily invested in war at the expense of poor Congolese. There are companies that are backing Kabila in exchange for mineral and oil concessions; some are backing Bemba and Kunda for the same; last we have those backing both sides with the aim of creating murky waters where their looting and human rights abuses will go unnoticed.

General Khaleb Akandwanaho AKA Gen. Salim Saleh –Museveni’s brother- was named by the UN as one of the key people involved in the looting of Congo.

  http://www.un.org/News/dh/latest/drcongo.htm
http://www.dundee.ac.uk/cepmlp/journal/html/Vol13/article13-7.pdf

The report names Saracen –a mercenary group- as one of the companies arming and training rebels in Congo. Saracen’s owners include Gen. Salim Saleh, Tony Texeira etc. Saracen provided security to Heritage Oil’s operations in Uganda. Heritage Oil was investigated for its role in the Eastern Congo conflict. Its employees have in the past been arrested for illegally entering Congo DRC.

http://www.monitor.co.ug/artman/publish/sun_news/
DR_Congo_troops_arrest_Heritage_Oil_surveyors_printer.shtml
Several sources have linked Heritage Oil, Branch Energy and Energem owners with mercenary activities. The firms have been criticized for their role in the trade of blood diamonds.

http://www.monitor.co.ug/artman/publish/inside_politics/
Oil_and_the_changings_face_of_business.shtml Is Energem (formerly DiamondWorks) funding the war in Congo? May be; may be not.

Did Energem fund Bemba’s bid for the big seat? May be; may be not.

What I can say it that it will take massive restraint for a father in-law not to help his son grab power. It is unimaginable that the Tony Texeira who was accused of shipping supplies to UNITA in clear violation of UN arms embargo can resist the allure of having a son in-law as the headmaster in a country that is chocking from massive reserves of minerals and oil. http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/
0,,236080,00.html

In Kenya, Raila Odinga is been operating on an endless supply of money. Some have attributed this to the successful $20 dollar dinners that Raila’s supporters organized in the USA and Europe. Others have pointed out the enormous political investment by companies that were running the modern scramble for Africa. What about a combination of the two?

Raila Odinga is a shareholder in Energem -the firm that co-owns the Kisumu Molasses Plant. Until recently his buddy Tony Texeira was heading the Kisumu plant. I am sure that his friend Tony will be happy to have him as a president. Has he given him a few bucks to run the campaign?

A number of mineral and energy resource companies have in the past invested in political power. The most recent team of power venture capitalists were convicted in the failed coup in Equatorial Guinea. The main investors according to a list that Simon Mann tired to smuggle out of prison were Mark Thatcher, David Hart, Ely Calil, Greg Wales, among others. The team of investors wanted their man on the throne so that they could benefit from oil revenue generated in EQ.

Raila Odinga has been making several trips to South Africa. This is kind of strange! The people who are going to vote in this election are Kenyans based in Kenya. At this eleventh hour, every minute spent on the ground meeting the voters is very important. I will be happy to hear from Raila and his supporters why South Africans are all of a sudden more important that the voters in Kenya. To add to the mystery, Raila never met any Kenyan groups during his recent visit to South Africa.

Plan B in the Making!

If Raila has a plan B like his buddy Jean-Pierre Bemba, then South Africa is the place to be. The plane carrying mercenaries to Equatorial Guinea departed from South Africa. Mercenary groups like Executive Outcomes, Sandline etc operate from South Africa. When Bemba was cornered by DRC forces he ran to the RSA embassy that then shipped him out of Congo.

Raila Odinga is making an environment conducive for his plan B. The master strategist in him started writing this script way back. Remember the 2006 campaign ads on DSTV? Let me quote the Standard:

Just before the World Cup kicked off early that month, Raila was abroad, to set the stage for his presidential campaign advert on DSTV.

When the tournament began, Raila came on to the screen via DSTV, to announce he would be running for Kenya’s Presidency this year.

In the advert, the Lang’ata MP introduced himself as a Pan Africanist and wished African teams in the World Cup success.

http://www.eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?
articleid=1143973904

Interesting! Why would a Kenyan politician blast his ads across the world claiming to be a Pan Africanist? If you are Raila Odinga and you understand that opinion leaders in Africa believe in Pan Africanism, you must understand the importance of identifying with them. I have never heard Raila push for Pan Africanism beyond calling himself a Pan African.

The label and the fame come in handy if you lose the election. You can justify anything you do in the name of rigging. You will find support in media houses across the continent manned by people who grew up in the 60s and 70s when Pan- Africanism was fad.

If you are Raila, you will cry wolf claiming the government is to rig you. You will spread propaganda that they are printing ballots to rig the elections. If you have Dick Morris on your side he will advice you to print ballots, circulate them and come out saying that your prophesy has been fulfilled. The problem is that the gap between the propaganda of ballots being printed and releasing the fake ballots will be too long. This has given PNU a chance to open its eyes wider.

Raila Odinga inspecting a guard of honor mounted by his youths in Nakuru

Raila Odinga also has an active youth group that dons military uniforms. This is a break from the T-Shirts that are used widely in political campaigns. Why one needs a para-military unit to support his campaigns is simply stupid. This is one way of glorifying militancy and tilling the ground in preparation for sowing war!

Peace supersedes personal ambition

We cannot say that Kenya is 100% peaceful. We have our own problems but we are not ready to kill our neighbors in the name of helping Raila Odinga achieve his ambition to be president. In 1982, the Kenyan Army successfully squashed the mutiny that Raila is proud of and has justified on several occasions.

Our Army has been apolitical and operates as a professional institution. It has let politicians fight each other without any interference. In fact it doesn’t occur to most people that Kenya has an army. This is a quality that we should not take for granted.

The army should brush aside those promoting tribalism. Our officers serve the citizens of Kenya and not any tribe or tribal king. We hope that it remains to be the case after the election. I have faith that the seeds of division will land on barren ground.

It is important that Raila comes out with the promise of respecting the voter’s verdict. Storming statehouse, parliament etc should not be an option. He has made such threats in the past but we must make him realize that his ambition should not jeopardize out existence as a nation.

Other Sources:

http://www.allthingspass.com/uploads/
pdf-226Congos%20JP%20Bemba[5]%20Sept%202007.pdf

http://www.publicintegrity.org/bow/report.aspx?aid=149

http://www.nriinternet.com/NRI_Fraud/ASIA/Thailand/
Rakesh_Saxena/1_crooked.htm

http://patfinucanecentre.org/pmcbride/040929ie.html

http://www.douglasfarah.com/2005/03/
bout-continues-to-fly-and-pentagons_09.html