ODM LETHARGY MAY BREED CATASTROPHIC ACTIONS

It pains me to be the bearer of bad news. However, foreseeing an occurance whether bad or good is an opportunity for cultivation of appropriate adjustments for proper solutions. Three weeks prior to elections, ODM was warned of an imminent relucatancy of Kibaki to hand over power either through rigging or through military effort. Indeed the scenarion we have right now were highlighted by many in many forums. The question paused then was whether ODM had a plan to counteract this. Unfortunately, we have now come to realize that ODM was indeed a "naive" movement having faith in everyone including Kibaki who had categorically told them that "nyinyi mtakaa pale pale na sisi hapa hapa. Akuna mahali mtaenda" The most amazing thing is that ODM still believed in the system even after Kibaki votes begun to emerge like bubbles from the bottom of an ocean signifying something fizzy. I do not blame Kibaki at all for this. Why? because he does understand the African system. He has been in this system and know that force is the key to authority and fairness is a heresay. The norm in Africa except for a few nationalistic approaches, is that the incumbent is never beaten in an election. They will do everything in their power to continue being in power. So Kibaki is doing what he is used to and what has worked in Africa for several decades. A frog does not venture into an unfamilier pond. Kibaki is in a familier territory and only a strong force of justice by the people not by the law courts will wake him up.

The people I strongly blame is the ODM. Even upto now ODM still believes in the system. They still believe that they will use the law and the system to kick Kibaki out. They should have leraned by now that this will never happen.

It is written all over what they have gone through. During the election ODM believed in fairness, they believed in Kiviti. After Kivitu failed they hoped Kibaki would be a gentlemen, then when Kibaki showed up at the inauguration then they thought the army and the airforce generals would stand with them, then when that failed they hoped that the attoney general would help. ODM even still had hope that USA will come to their aid only to be shocked by the congratulation message for Kibaki. The message is very clear, everyone including the west are aware that fairness does not exist in Africa and the case of Kenya before this election was indeed very unexpected. They expected Kenya to degenerate to this level. As far as the west ic concerned, minimmum stability Kenya is better that failed states in Africa. ODM should have seen this. Dont ODM see what has happened in other regions. How makes ODM still have faith in this rotten system baffles me.

Now ODM has talked to the British, European Union, America, Germany and the rest but have ignored the people. Their hope is that this route will be obeyed by Kibaki. Another repeat of major mistakes. Dont ODM see other governments supported by these countries? Were they fairly elected? My answer is no. The western government are very happy with minnimal peace when it comes to the African situation. And as long as Kenya go back to normal whether the public agree with Kibaki election or not, the support that ODM have currently from these governments will fizzle out. The only support ODM can count on for along time is the people. However, the people do not know what is next. The people are confused. ODM has not taken the odecity to inform the public. Some are beginning to wonder why they took the pain. Others have beginnig to have doubt in the leadership. Some have already been isolated and are being targeted to be arrested by the Kibaki government.

My major worry is that ODM will wake up too late and will start using certain alternative measures at a too late a time when the people shall have lost faith in the common struiggle. This will result in a prolonged war with major casualties. Each region will be fighting their own battle. The Kalenjin, the maasai, the luhya, luo and other tribes will be fighting on their own while the kikuyu elites will be holding onto power that everyone will be looking for. In certain cases each region will be fighting a regional autonomy and local boundaries. At the moment there is unity but in very neer future each tribe will be fighting one another. Kanya will disintegrate to something no one has ever seen before. It will be awar that will never be won. Somali will be a child's play. Only ODM can keep this union going but unfortunately they are held up in backing decrees that are postponed each day. The people support is waning and some will soon opt out because they do not see the sence of it.

The rod must be struck when it is hot. ODM must not loose their key supporters, the people. Right now ODM is loosing the people probably faster than they gained them. Kibaki knows this and he is backing on this and that is why he is proporsing things that he knows have no bearing and will not be honoured. As an ODM supporter, I am aware that Kibaki is preparing to name the cabinet, open the parlierment and open schools etc etc. However, I have absolutely no idea what my ODM is preparing to do. I, as an ODM guy is confused, disheartened and in the dark. I believe many are in this situation.

Can anyone in ODM act before it is too late.

DR. BARACK ABONYO