Fri, 8 Feb 2008 06:37:11


Africa and conflicts are not strange bed fellows. From Chad to Zimbabwe, Nigeria to Somalia, Africa is plagued with political and tribal conflicts. Many lives have been lost and yet Africa nations have never learnt from the mistakes made by next door neighbors. Whether our genes predispose us to this is unclear but at some point human beings created in the image of God or men and women who have grey and white matter and not dust in their brains should not behave like the wild beasts that senselessly continue to cross a river even after one of their own has been munched by the crocodiles. At some point people must wake up and see the light.  To date, I am still amazed at the Kenyan situation. Surprisingly, this is not strange to Africa. Just the other day we saw Rwandans slaughter each other like goats. Just before that many Ugandans ran away from their own country from the militias there. The picture was obscure to many Kenyans and when we were warned of the possibility of an occurance like this in Kenya we did not listen. Now we are mocked.

African nations' conflicts fit very well into human age group passage. It spans naive infancy to careless teanager. Hormone-raged adolescence/puberty to crazy middle aged crisis and may only end in spent old age. If the Kenyan situation is analysed in this light, we are simply in the naive infancy stage. There is more in store for us. Somalia, on the other hand, is somewhere between the teanage and adolescent stage. Unless PNU negotiators are entirely stupid, they must forsee a situation when the adolescent and middle age crisis is going to set in Kenya. At that stage, Kenya will be as much of a mess as was Uganda, Somalia or Sudan. PNU needs to seriously negotiate before the crazy teanage stage sets in. Otherwise, they have a lot more to lose compared to other Kenyans. I say they will lose a great deal because the reason that they stole the election was to protect their wealth. At this point, they are not protecting it at all because if the situation persists, there will be no wealth worth talking about in Kenya.

Let us take Somalia as an example.

Due to the repressive regime of Siad Barre, civil war raged in Somalia. An attempt to reinstate Barre in 1991 led to more violent fighting in the south, resulting in the declaration of independence by the Republic of Somaliland. Between 1992 and 1995, the UN intervened and the UN Security Council Resolution 733 and UN Security Council Resolution 746 led to the creation of UNOSOM I. The period of 1998–2006 saw the declaration of a number of self-declared autonomous states within Somalia. The self-proclaimed state of Puntland in 1998 and the state of Jubaland in the south in 1988. The Rahanweyn Resistance Army (RRA) set up a state in Puntland in 1999. The territory of Jubaland was declared as encompassed by the state of Southwestern Somalia and its status is unclear. A fourth self-declared state was formed as Galmudug in 2006 in response to the growing power of the Islamic Courts Union. In 2004, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was founded in Nairobi, Kenya. Matters were still too chaotic inside Somalia to convene in Mogadishu.

The main question to be asked is, is Kenya too good to go thorugh things like this? Can the same things occur in Kenya? My answer is that it is not a matter of can it happen; it is already happening. We are simply in the infant stage, the UN is helping us negotiate through Annan. Very soon the negotiations will reach a stalemate, especially if the PNUans mainatain their rigidity. This will be followed by a repressive regime in which Kibaki will imprison ODM leaders. Beacause of this, the army, airforce, GSU and police will be split in the middle. Those who come from Nyanza, Rift Valley, western and coast will form a union of warloads to fight the governmment dominated by central Kenya. This will be followed by disintegration of the union with each region fighting for autonomy from the central province. It will be bad. Every tribe in Kenya will be fighting for the cake that is owned by central kenya. Who will suffer more is a question that PNU must ask. At this rate, Kibaki and the other PNUans will not be in the country. Indeed, Kibaki will leave the country and die outside Kenya. Kenya will become a failed state with each region fighting for Nairobi, Kisumu and the port of Mombasa. This is the crazy teenage stage. My heart cries for central kenya because it is a very sad state of affairs if every single tribe in Kenya will be fighting one tribe. However, we don't have to go there. This baby can be killed and buried right here, right now.

At times I wonder if the PNU negotiators see this. Atleast ODM sees the future for Kenya and has forgone its original stand. What has the PNU side forgone? They are still trying to convince us that Kibaki won the election even though they cannot convince a deranged man on the street. If this continues, there will be no country for Kibaki to be president of. Ministry and minister will not exist. Warloads will be supreme. Kibaki will be nobody's president just like he is already and he will also be no one's warload because he is too old to fight any war and no one will be willing to deliver the loot this time.

Watengula, Ongeri, Karua and Kilonzo, negotiate knowing that this is the last chance for you to keep what you own in Kenya. If you guys fail to stop this baby from growing to an adult, I will soon be occupying your office without paying a dime for it. Your land will become somebody else's who never worked for it. Your wife may even temporarily become a kid soldier's concubine. It is now or never. Do what is right. Save Kenya the bloodshed. The guns, the army, the airforce, and the GSU are made of people from different tribes. Very soon they will be tired of your inability to solve this problem. Do not believe in the concept of government without agreement. A government cannot exist if the people it is made by, for and of are not agreeable to its existence.

Act now before it is too late. Negotiate fairly and fast.

        - Dr. Barack Abonyo