Fri, 8 Feb 2008 16:08:46



Jaluo,

We all love Kenya.

By the statement "For the same reason, our men do not mourn infants," I mean ODM's Presidency died in its infancy.. more accurately, it was a still birth," and we do not mourn for that; instead we look forward to a better tomorrow.

As of today Hon. Odinga and ODM have dropped their more principled
demands. I believe one such position was not recognizing Kibaki's Presidency.
Kibaki will be the President, for some time. The rest is semantics: "Coalition"
or "Power-sharing," or "GNU."

And ...

The news out of Nairobi (Kenya) indicates that ODM has agreed to "a power-
sharing arrangement" with Kibaki's government. Will it be a coalition? Will it be
a GNU? For how long will it be in place? Who will be the President, Vice
President...? What will be Odinga's role? What will it mean to the future multi-
party democracy in Kenya?

It is good news to the IDPs all over Kenya, and to the ordinary Kenyan on the
street.

This development gives Kibaki who occupies state house some breathing space. It is up to him to lead in national healing or continue fighting ODM. Once the Annan Deal is sealed, ODM will have to watch its every move. Why?

First, as the battlelines between PNU/ODM and Government/Opposition
become blurred, Kibaki will try to poach some of ODM's MPs.

Secondly, The MOVEMENT has become a PARTY. ODM won because it
was a MOVEMENT with "a message whose time had come." In 2012, 2010,
2011, or when the next election is held, there will be new regional reallignments
because of the suffering the people have gone through (there will be another
MOVEMENT); there will be a new constitution in place; Kalonzo or Kilonzo
will be the PNU candidate; ODM will be part of the government; importantly,
ODM's message will have been overtaken by the times; Kibaki may even refuse to observe some parts of the Annan deal, particularly his abridged Second Term.  That is why ODM must watch its steps in parliament, and even the interim, must serve in its role as the majority party before it sinks into irrelevance, because PNU will be competing with it in a state-funded beauty contest.

Jaluo, we all love Kenya; and ODM.

Check this space .....

JR Alila

http://politics.nationmedia.com/inner.asp?cat=TOP&sid=1447

http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/
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http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/
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