Thu, 7 Feb 2008 15:27:41


Sillah,

I hope this response gets posted.

I am suprised that you mentioned my name thrice in your short piece.The blog is a democratic space where people air their ideas freely. It so happens that what we are fighting over is the future of Kenya. I still maintain that there are non-military options to the standoff; and that UN and AU forces are not needed in Kenya. For one, Kibaki will have to allow them in, and that will be after two years of debates at the UN as to whether there is impunity and genocide in Kenya. But targeted economic sanctions by donors (if firm) can force his hand and make him behave quickly.

Which Way ODM?

A lot of the readers in this blog will find this assertion rather simplistic and naive, but in my view, the talks in Nairobi are aimed at "baby-sitting" ODM as Kibaki settles into his seat. I may be wrong, but listen to the latest word from Annan: under the present circumstances in Kenya, a re-run of the Presidential vote is not feasible for at least one year. Now, this statement came after he received ODM's evidence as to how the Presidential tally was rigged. Prior to this, Kalonzo--that pretty face from Masaku--is stomping world capitals promising that peace has returned in Kenya, and Kibaki is in control, and chairing IGAD.

Meanwhile, ODM is being told by PNU that ECK did mess up, and will be reconstituted. Secondly, ODM is being advised by "alien friends" to swallow the bitter pill and take ministerial positions (Agriculture and Fisheries!) in a Kibaki Government (Coalision Arrangement!) as a new constitutional order for 2012 is being worked under WAKO, Karua and Parliament. To show that they are serious, these Western Friends have given a number of ODM MPs (and PNU too) DO-NOT-ADMIT cards so that they accept a coallition arrangement. ODM has been trapped; if it walks off City Hall talks in huff, the label "Rebel Movement" will follow it quickly. It will be miraculous for ODM to leave these talk as a solid entity: It accepts a coalition and it dies as a Party of any relevence in 2012, and multi-party democracy with it. ODM walks off in protest, and the country burns with it, which it will not do.

I have known African dictators who gleefully inspected guards of honor mounted by skulls and bones. The UN never reined them in. The PNU band appears to be the dangerous sweet-talking type that can declare that there are floods in Garissa in the middle of a drought. This PNU band will not compromise its position, and will be willing to sit it out long and play the plight of IDPs in Kibera and Rift Valley to the international media. That land has become the key contentious matter that makes this scenerio the more likely (Look at Zimbabwe, Rwanda).

In the unfolding tragedy, the noblest thing ODM will do is to decide that too much suffering has visited the people; and that it does not want "a bride with blood on her hands," and become a formidable opposition in parliament-- hoping that the peolple will be with it in 2012. For this to happen, the ODM leadership and MPs must be in it together, and the people must be willing to join them on this long journey to 2012. Bitter? Yes. But it is for the same reason that our men do not mourn the deaths of infants.

Sillah, I am very naive; but that is the way I read the possible consequences of the current developments in Nairobi.

J.R. Alila

(Author: Thirteen Curses of Mother Africa)


Dear JR,

We respectfully disagree with you, however, you do you seem to be on the same page as J Ouma (see the thread "HAVE WE LOST IT COMRADES?").

Kenyans should note that Chad is already asking for EU peacekeepers. Have 1,000 people died in Chad lately? Should Kenya wait until 2,000 people have died? How about 10,000? Or does the standard for when it is time to call in the peacekeepers require a higher body count?

Some more points worth noting (you mention but seem to downplay the importance of some of these points):

1) That the travel ban applies to both members of PNU and members of ODM is a victory, not a loss. We have heard through the grapevine that Wetangula was actually supposed to accompany Kalonzo but was barred from doing so.

2) The congressional hearings yesterday were DEFINITELY not favorable to Kibaki. From what we hear, Kibaki officials walked out of these hearings while State Department representative James Swan struggled to make excuses for Jendayi Frazer's mismanagement of the whole affair...

Some highlights from Jukwaa's coverage of the February 6 hearing (this was Senator Payne's analyis):

It is important to point out that while the ECK and the Kibaki government mishandled the 2007 elections, the State Department’s response in the wake of the elections was at best confused and at worst completely inappropriate to the circumstances.

A number of statements issued by the State Department not only missed the point, but the actions of some U.S. officials were counter-productive and one-sided.

To my knowledge no one else in the international community made such a gaffe. The State Department should have waited on the outcome to determine how to respond effectively. Our diplomatic efforts in the wake of the elections have not been stellar. Indeed, the response to the Kenya election crisis proves beyond doubt that some in the Administration are quick to embrace a government that engages in electoral abuses and overlook rather than condemn its electoral and human rights abuses.

Also...

“Let me be blunt. The election results announced by the ECK do not reflect the wishes of the Kenyan people. The people of Kenya voted for change. What they were given was the status quo.”

Somehow, JR, we get the impression that the west is turning against Kibaki, hence Kalonzo's frenzied city-hopping campaign.

3) Yes, ODM may end up in a temporary power-sharing agreement but it will likely last no more than two years until a new election is held. Ironically, had the west supported a new election from the very beginning, when it was clear that there were too many irregularities for the announced "result" to be viewed as credible, then we could have avoided much of this. It is because the international community has been slow to do what needs to be done that we are where we are today. Justice delayed is justice denied (this saying could be the summary of our response to both you and J Ouma).

4) Whereas before it seemed as though the power-sharing arrangement would be for an entire five years time, it now appears that a power-sharing agreement will be at least three years shorter than that. This leads us to believe that the opposition has successfully chipped away at Kibaki's "advantage." Kibaki, as we have noted, has not helped himself either. Nor, it seems, have his golfing buddies.

At this point, if Kenya descends into civil war, we are quite certain that most of the blame will be directed at Kibaki and not at ODM. Remember, the west actually refers to Kibaki as president. With great power comes great responsibility...

The world is losing patience with Kibaki. It is becoming clear that he is the main obstacle to peace as he has done everything to frustrate negotiations. We hope that Kibaki will see reason and stop listening to the bigots that surround him. Otherwise, he will surely go down in history as another African tyrant. Kibaki should note that, as the self-appointed leader of the gang, it is HE and not his confidantes who will be forced to face the judgement of this world and the next.

        Regards,
        Jaluo Press

P.S. JR, when have we not posted your submissions? Also, please qualify this statement: "But it is for the same reason that our men do not mourn the deaths of infants."